The Scottish Government does not produce its own income tax forecasts. The independent Scottish Fiscal Commission publishes its official forecasts of Scottish income tax receipts twice per year, and has done so since December 2017. The SFC forecasts annual income tax receipts of £11.5 billion in 2018-19, growing to £14.6 billion in 2024-25, which is an increase of £3.1 billion.
The member raises a number of issues. Scotland’s economy is performing well: it has record low unemployment, record high employment and a strong performance on productivity, exports and a number of other economic indicators. There might be cyclical or distributional issues when it comes to income tax growth. I have explored thoroughly with the Finance and Constitution Committee the fact...
No, it does not mean that at all. The reality of the income tax reconciliation is that it is down to forecast error at the hands of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Office for Budget Responsibility. That issue will be addressed. At the moment, we are talking about forecasts of forecasts. Once we have outturn data, we will know exactly what the position is. At that point, we will be able...
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Entered the Scottish Parliament on 6 May 2011 — Election
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