Northern Ireland (Date of Next Assembly Poll) Order 2003

Part of the debate – in the House of Lords at 7:41 pm on 10 November 2003.

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Photo of Lord Smith of Clifton Lord Smith of Clifton Liberal Democrat 7:41, 10 November 2003

My Lords, I too thank the Minister for introducing these very important orders. Perhaps I may say with the greatest of respect that the noble Baroness the Lord President of the Council should have introduced them, given their huge symbolic and substantive significance to Northern Ireland. I trust that this is not an augury of things to come. I do not believe that the late and very lamented Lord Williams of Mostyn would have missed this trick.

Today the "sage of Ulster" in his weekly column in the Irish Independent presented a pessimistic scenario regarding the Assembly elections. Dr Maurice Hayes predicted a low turn out, which would be quite unprecedented: Northern Ireland traditionally has high levels of voter turnout. This is not surprising perhaps, given the suspension of the Assembly for over a year. What was particularly debilitating was the decision—for no good reason as it turned out—not to hold the elections last May when they were due. The past six months have not merely been a waste of time, but have contributed to a loss of political momentum and will have fostered a great apathy and indeed some cynicism among the electorate.

The election campaign is under way and the people will make their choice. When the Assembly reconvenes, London and Dublin would be well advised to stand back and play a very modest role, leaving it to the parties to form an executive. It is up to the people of Northern Ireland and their elected representatives. If they fail to form a power-sharing executive—and I predict that this will take many months—in the end there will be a return to direct rule. But not as before. Does the Minister agree that the status quo ante is not an option? As I have said before, it will be direct rule, run by London in very close partnership with Dublin. In effect, a condominium. I say that to Ulster Unionist colleagues. No one with any democratic spirit will like that, and it is up to the newly elected Assembly to hammer out an agreement by which an executive can be resumed.