Will you commission an independent statistical analysis to establish which bus garages suffered clusters of Covid-19 deaths and correlate them with potential causes, such as the use of ferry vehicles?

Transport for London (TfL) remains open to undertaking further independent study where they have a high likelihood of contributing to enhanced safety across the bus network.

The second phase of the research undertaken by the UCL Institute of Health Equity attempted to identify correlations between the findings from a detailed survey of bus drivers and data relating to Covid-19 deaths. In the survey, drivers were asked a broad range of questions relating to their work patterns and driving conditions, travel to and from work, their pre-existing health and health-related conditions, their experiences of Covid-19, their demographic characteristics, living conditions and their views on the safety actions taken by bus operators. The survey found that respondents’ views on the safety actions taken by bus operators (i.e. their employers), on the adequacy of social distancing measures and the safety of transfer arrangements did not vary markedly between bus operators. It also found no relationship between these considerations and excess mortality.

The UCL study linked the tragic deaths of bus drivers at the start of the pandemic to the delayed introduction of lockdown. As the pandemic has continued, there have not been any clusters of deaths identified at particular bus garages, where a cluster is defined by Public Health England as two or more test-confirmed cases of Covid-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within a 14-day period.

As stated in my response to 2021/4498, I do not believe further statistical analysis of the type proposed would enhance our understanding of the impact of the pandemic as the results of the UCL study fundamentally cover the same ground.