I note that on 4 July 2019 you Tweeted to your followers: ‘The damage that Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt seem willing to do to our economy, in pursuit of power, looks limitless. The refusal to take no-deal off the table is already creating uncertainty, denting business confidence and damaging our economy.’1 What empirical evidence (apart from what I believe to be scare mongering from HM Treasury, Remainer cheerleaders or former Goldman Sachs banker Mark Carney) do you have that the UK leaving the European Union without a deal will damage our economy?
As the UK is still a member of the EU, one cannot gather "empirical” evidence about what will happen if the UK leaves.
However, we can and should listen to analysis from the Bank of England, the Government’s Office of Budget Responsibility, and the International Monetary Fund. They have published studies predicting the economic damage of a no deal Brexit.
The independent economic analysis that I published last year suggested that a ‘no deal’ hard Brexit could lead to a lost decade – or even longer - of significantly lower growth. That means 500,000 fewer jobs and nearly £50bn less investment by 2030 than would otherwise have been the case.
We must also listen to business. Carolyn Fairbairn, Director General of the Confederation of British Industry, said last week that “no deal is a tripwire into economic chaos that could harm our country, and the EU, for years to come.”
If the UK were to crash out of the EU in October, then I fear that the empirical evidence that might then be gathered on the effects of a no-deal Brexit would prove those educated predictions to be devastatingly accurate.