I would politely suggest that hon. Members listen to this, because it includes funding for vital compensation schemes for victims of two terrible injustices: the infected blood scandal and the Post Office Horizon scandal.

The Leader of the Opposition rightly made an unequivocal apology for the injustice of the infected blood scandal on behalf of the British state, but he did not budget for the costs of compensation. Today, for the very first time, we will provide specific funding to compensate those infected and those affected in full, with £11.8 billion in this Budget. I am also today setting aside £1.8 billion to compensate victims of the Post Office Horizon scandal—redress that is long overdue for the pain and injustice that they have suffered.

The leadership campaign for the Conservative party has now been going on for over three months, but in all that time there has been not one single apology for what they did to our country. The Conservative party has not changed—but this is a changed Labour party and we will restore stability to our country once again. The scale and seriousness of the situation that we have inherited cannot be underestimated. Together, the hole in our public finances this year, which recurs every year, the compensation schemes that the previous Government did not fund, and their failure to assess the scale of the challenges facing our public services, means that this Budget raises taxes by £40 billion. Any Chancellor standing here today would have to face this reality, and any responsible Chancellor would take action. That is why today I am restoring stability to our public finances and rebuilding our public services.

As a former economist at the Bank of England, I know what it means to respect our economic institutions. I put on record my thanks to the Governor of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, and the independent Monetary Policy Committee. Today, I can confirm that we will maintain the MPC’s target of 2% inflation, as measured by the 12-month increase in the consumer prices index. I thank James Bowler, the permanent Secretary to the Treasury, and my team of officials. I also thank my predecessors as Chancellor of the exchequer for their wise counsel as I have prepared for this Budget. In particular, I thank the former right hon. Member for Spelthorne for his invaluable advice in this weekend’s papers, where he concluded that his mini-Budget “wasn’t perfect”. For once, he and I are in absolute agreement. Finally, I thank Richard Hughes and his team at the Office for Budget Responsibility for their work in preparing today’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Let me take the House through that forecast. The cost of living crisis under the last Government stretched household finances to their limit, with inflation hitting a peak of above 11%. Today, the OBR says that CPI inflation will average 2.5% this year, 2.6% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, 2.1% in 2028 and 2.0% in 2029.

Moving on to economic growth, today’s Budget marks an end to short-termism, so I am pleased that, for the first time, the OBR has published not only five-year growth forecasts but a detailed assessment of the growth impacts of our policies over the next decade. The new charter for Budget responsibility, which I am publishing today, confirms that this will become a permanent feature of our framework. The OBR forecasts that real GDP growth will be 1.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027, 1.5% in 2028 and 1.6% in 2029. The OBR is clear: this Budget will permanently increase the supply capacity of the economy, boosting long-term growth. [Interruption.] It may sound shocking to Conservative Members, but this Government are boosting long-term economic growth.

Every Budget that I deliver will be focused on our mission to grow the economy, and underpinning that mission are the seven key pillars of our growth strategy, developed and delivered alongside business, and all driven forward by our excellent Financial Secretary to the Treasury. The first and most important is to restore economic stability. That is my focus today. Secondly, increasing investment and building new infrastructure is vital for productivity, so we are catalysing £70 billion of investment through our national wealth fund, and we are transforming our planning rules to get Britain building again. Thirdly, to ensure that all parts of the UK can realise their potential we are working with the devolved Governments and partnering with our mayors to develop local growth plans. Fourthly, to improve employment prospects and skills we are creating Skills England, delivering our plans to make work pay and tackling economic inactivity.

Fifthly, we are launching our long-term modern industrial strategy and expanding opportunities for our small and medium-sized businesses to grow. Sixthly, to drive innovation, we are protecting record funding for research and development to harness the full potential of the UK’s science base. Finally, to maximise the growth benefits of our clean energy mission, we have confirmed key investments, such as carbon capture and storage, to create jobs in our industrial heartlands. Our approach is already having an impact: just two weeks ago, we delivered an international investment summit that saw businesses commit £63.5 billion of investment into our country, creating nearly 40,000 jobs across the United Kingdom. But we cannot undo 14 years of damage in one go. Economic growth will be our mission for the duration of this Parliament.

In our manifesto, we set out the fiscal rules that would guide this Government. I am confirming those today: our stability rule and our investment rule. The stability rule means that we will bring the current Budget into balance so that we do not borrow to fund day-to-day spending. We will meet that rule in 2029-30, until that becomes the third year of the forecast. From then on, we will balance the current Budget in the third year of every Budget, held annually each autumn. That will provide a tougher constraint on day-to-day spending, so that difficult decisions cannot be constantly delayed or deferred. The OBR says that the current Budget will be in deficit by £26.2 billion in 2025-26 and by £5.2 billion in 2026-27, before moving into surplus of £10.9 billion in 2027-28, £9.3 billion in 2028-29 and £9.9 billion in 2029-30, meeting our stability rule two years early.

Monthly public sector finance data show that Government borrowing in the first six months of this year was already running significantly higher than the OBR’s March forecast, and the OBR confirmed today that borrowing in this financial year is now £127 billion, reflecting the inheritance left by the Conservative party. The increase in the net cash requirement in 2024-25 is lower than the increase in borrowing, at £22.3 billion higher than the spring forecast. Because of the action that we are taking, borrowing falls from 4.5% of GDP this year to 2.1% of GDP by the end of the forecast. Public sector net borrowing will be £105.6 billion in 2025-26, £88.5 billion in 2026-27, £72.2 billion in 2027-28, £71.9 billion in 2028-29 and £70.6 billion in 2029-30.

Before I come to tax, it is vital that we are driving efficiency and reducing wasteful spending. In July, to begin dealing with our inheritance, I made £5.5 billion of savings this year. Today we are setting a 2% productivity, efficiency and savings target for all Departments to meet next year by using technology more effectively and joining up services across Government. As set out in our manifesto, I will shortly be appointing our covid corruption commissioner. They will lead our work to uncover those companies that used a national emergency to line their own pockets, because that money belongs in our public services, and taxpayers want it back. I can confirm today that David Goldstone has been appointed chair of the new office for value for money to help us realise the benefits from every pound of public spending.

Today, I am also taking three steps to ensure that welfare spending is more sustainable. First, we inherited the last Government’s plans to reform the work capability assessment. We will deliver those savings as part of our fundamental reforms to the health and disability benefits system that my right hon. Friend the Work and Pensions Secretary will bring forward.

Secondly, I can today announce a crackdown on fraud in our welfare system—often the work of criminal gangs. We will expand the DWP’s counter-fraud teams, using innovative new methods to prevent illegal activity, and provide new legal powers to crack down on fraudsters, including direct access to bank accounts to recover debt. That package saves £4.3 billion a year by the end of the forecast.

Thirdly, the Government will shortly be publishing the “Get Britain Working” white paper, tackling the root causes of inactivity with an integrated approach across health, education and welfare, and we will provide £240 million for 16 trailblazer projects, targeted at those who are economically inactive and most at risk of being out of education, employment or training, to get people into work and reduce the benefits bill.

Before a Government can consider any change to a tax rate or threshold, they must ensure that people pay what they already owe. We will invest to modernise His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs systems using the very best technology, and recruit additional HMRC compliance and debt staff. We will clamp down on the umbrella companies that exploit workers, increase the interest rate on unpaid tax debt to ensure that people pay on time, and go after the promoters of tax avoidance schemes. Those measures to reduce the tax gap raise £6.5 billion by the end of the forecast, and I thank the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury for his outstanding work on that agenda.

I know that for working people up and down our country, family finances are stretched and pay cheques do not go as far as they once did, so today I am taking steps to support people with the cost of living. It was the Labour Government who introduced the national minimum wage in 1999. That had a transformative impact on the lives of working people. As promised in our manifesto, we asked the Low Pay Commission to take account of the cost of living for the first time. I can confirm that we will accept the commission’s recommendation to increase the national living wage by 6.7% to £12.21 an hour, worth up to £1,400 a year for a full-time worker. And, for the first time, we will move towards a single adult rate, phased in over time by initially increasing the national minimum wage for 18 to 20-year-olds by 16.3%, as recommended by the Low Pay Commission, taking it to £10 an hour—a Labour policy to protect working people, being delivered by a Labour Government once again.

Secondly, I have heard representations from colleagues across this House, including my hon. Friends the Members for Shipley (Anna Dixon) and for Scarborough and Whitby (Alison Hume), and Ed Davey, about the carer’s allowance and the impact of the current policy on carers who are looking to increase the hours that they work. Carer’s allowance currently provides up to £81.90 per week to help those with additional caring responsibilities. Today, I can confirm that we are increasing the weekly earnings limit to the equivalent of 16 hours at the national living wage per week—the largest increase in the carer’s allowance since it was introduced in 1976. That means that a carer can now earn over £10,000 a year while receiving carer’s allowance, allowing them to increase their hours where they want to, and keep more of their money. I am also concerned about the cliff edge in the current system and the issue of overpayments. My right hon. Friend the Work and Pensions Secretary has announced an independent review to look at the issue of overpayments, and we will work across the House to develop the right solutions.

Thirdly, we will provide £1 billion from next year to extend the household support fund and discretionary housing payments to help those facing financial hardship with the cost of essentials. Fourthly, having heard representations from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the Trussell Trust and others, I will reduce the level of debt repayments that can be taken from a household’s universal credit payment each month from 25% to 15% of their standard allowance. That means that 1.2 million of the poorest households will keep more of their award each month, lifting children out of poverty, and those who benefit will gain an average of £420 a year.

Our plan to make work pay will also protect working people. I know that Conservative Members are deeply interested in our plans. Having seen their colleagues repeatedly dismissed at short notice, I know that they are worried about their future under Mrs Badenoch. They should rest easy knowing that our plan will protect working people from unfair dismissal; it will safeguard them from bullying in the workplace; and it will improve their access to paternity and maternity leave. I hope the new Shadow Cabinet will soon be grateful for those increased protections at work.

It is right that we protect those who have worked all their lives. In our manifesto, we promised to transfer the investment reserve fund in the mineworkers’ pension scheme to members. I have listened closely to my hon. Friends the Members for Easington (Grahame Morris), for Doncaster Central (Sally Jameson), for Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (Nick Smith) and for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (Elaine Stewart) on this issue. Today, we are keeping our promise, so that working people who powered our country receive the fair pension that they are owed.

Our manifesto committed to the triple lock, meaning that spending on the state pension is forecast to rise by over £31 billion by 2029-30, to ensure our pensioners are protected in their retirement. That commitment means that while working-age benefits will be uprated in line with CPI at 1.7%, the basic and new state pension will be uprated by 4.1% in 2025-26. This means that over 12 million pensioners will gain up to £470 next year, up to £275 more than uprating by inflation. The pension credit standard minimum guarantee will also rise by 4.1%, from around £11,400 per year to around £11,850 a year for a single pensioner.

While I have sought to protect working people with measures to reduce the cost of living, I have had to take some very difficult decisions on tax. I want to set out my approach to fuel duty. Baked into the numbers that I inherited from the previous Government is an assumption that fuel duty will rise in line with the retail prices index next year and that the temporary 5p cut will be reversed. To retain the 5p cut and to freeze fuel duty again would cost over £3 billion next year. At a time when the fiscal position is so difficult, I have to be frank with the House that that is a substantial commitment to make. I have concluded that, in these difficult circumstances, while the cost of living remains high and with a backdrop of global uncertainty, increasing fuel duty next year would be the wrong choice for working people. It would mean fuel duty rising by 7p per litre, so I have decided today to freeze fuel duty next year, and I will maintain the existing 5p cut for another year, too. There will be no higher taxes at the petrol pumps next year.

The last Government made cuts of £20 billion to employees’ and self-employed national insurance in their final two Budgets. Those tax cuts were not honest, because we now know that they were based on a forecast that the OBR says would have been “materially different” had it known the true extent of the last Government’s cover-up. Since July, I have been urged on multiple occasions to reconsider those cuts—to increase the taxes that working people pay and see in their payslips—but I have made an important choice today: to keep every single commitment that we made on tax in our manifesto. I say to working people, I will not increase your national insurance, I will not increase your VAT, and I will not increase your income tax. Working people will not see higher taxes in their payslips as a result of the choices I am making today. That is a promise made and a promise fulfilled.

Any responsible Chancellor would need to make difficult decisions today to raise the revenues required to fund our public services and restore economic stability. So in today’s Budget, I am announcing an increase in employers’ national insurance contributions. We will increase the rate of employers’ national insurance by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025, and we will reduce the secondary threshold—the level at which employers start paying national insurance on each employee’s salary—from £9,100 a year to £5,000. This will raise £25 billion per year by the end of the forecast period. I know that this is a difficult choice; I do not take this decision lightly. We are asking businesses to contribute more, and I know that there will be impacts of this measure felt beyond businesses, too, as the OBR has set out today. [Interruption.]