Privatised Probation System

Part of the debate – in the House of Commons at 5:06 pm on 4th March 2019.

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Photo of Rory Stewart Rory Stewart The Minister of State, Ministry of Justice 5:06 pm, 4th March 2019

Yes, it is. Big lessons need to be drawn from it, not just for the purpose of probation reforms but for the purpose of any other reforms that we make in government. One of the big issues concerned is our ability to predict the consequences of large-scale system change, and in particular to predict the shifts in caseload. As the National Audit Office points out, there was a modelling of a 2% shift, and the reality was a 48% shift. Drilling down into how that advice was given and responded to is one of the ways in which we can draw those lessons.