I broadly support the call for some cross-party engagement to try to secure the future for the national health service, although I will come on to clarify that in my speech. The right hon. Gentleman may encounter some difficulties in seeking cross-party support for financing the NHS, not least because of some of the contributions so far. There are some profound challenges to financing health and social care, primarily because of the challenges that we, and all western societies, face with an ageing population. I remember the Intergenerational Foundation launch here in Parliament a few years ago. Only the former Member for Dulwich and I turned up. At the time, the subject was not much discussed, but I note that it is now increasingly being discussed. We are beginning to do the maths and realise that we cannot afford the current settlement for financing health and social care and that we will have to discuss it at some length. The problem is that one ends up talking about broadly different political philosophies and approaches. Some people, I suspect more on the Conservative Benches, will want to emphasise the need for personal responsibility; others, I suspect more on the Opposition Benches, will want to emphasise collectivisation and the like. That is why I suggest that discussing the financial settlement is possibly a road to nowhere.
I think there is scope, however, for discussion on the structural organisation of the health service: where our hospitals are located and what each individual hospital does. In a week when we have had yet another dreadful failure of the system with the 111 line and out-of-hours services, it is beholden on us to start to discuss what is offered in the out-of-hours arena: how the services are structured and where patients should go to seek the appropriate care for themselves or their children.
The context has been set out by other colleagues. We know that we have a problem of increasing demand, which is driven mainly by ageing, obesity and the welcome advances in surgical practice, technology and drugs. There is also a problem with the health-seeking behaviour of different generations. In my own clinical practice, I am seeing the passing of the stoic wartime generation. Their attitude towards health, and to symptoms of pain and suffering, is noticeably different from that of their children and that will bring increasing demand on healthcare services. If we consider that together with the large cohort who were born between 1945 and 1955, we have an equation that results in a significant deficit.
On the subject of deficits, since I have been here I have seen many faceless NHS bureaucrats come up with numbers relating to likely demand and shortfall. They are always wrong; the figures are usually underestimated. I said at the time that the £20 billion challenge in the previous Parliament was an underestimate of likely demand and here we are talking about £30 billion. What is next: £40 billion? I am glad that a shadow Minister for mental health has been appointed and that people are waking up to the importance of mental health because demands for mental health services in particular will increase the £30 billion figure.
On hospital structure, essentially we have 19th and 20th century buildings trying to deliver 21st century care. Medical and management staff are trying to do their best within this infrastructure, but to be blunt it is not possible to deliver the very best care in all hospitals and in all locations.