Scotland’s place in the United Kingdom means we have a truly single domestic market, with no barriers to trade and employment across the United Kingdom. Independence would fundamentally change that. The resulting “border effect” would disrupt trade and free movement of workers, reducing real incomes by, it is estimated, around £2,000 per Scottish household per year.
My constituency is home to a large number of national logistics and distribution companies. Is my right hon. Friend aware of the growing concern in that sector that separation could make some cross-border routes less attractive, as they would become international rather than domestic ones?
Indeed, and I hear the same message from a range of business interests. The financial services industry, for example, says that independence would bring extra costs with different taxation and different regulation. The supermarkets have made it very clear that extra costs would fall to Scottish consumers if Scotland were independent.
According to the House of Commons Library, 200,000 UK jobs depend on trade with the Republic of Ireland—double that of Canada and Norway. Ireland used to be part of the UK, but trade between the two has never been higher. The UK is Ireland’s No. 1 trading partner, and among the recently independent nations of the European Union, foreign direct investment rose by 215% in the first four years of independence. For those realities, what scare stories will the Secretary of State use?
It is not a scare story to point out that the White Paper presents a prospectus and a future where there would be barriers and where the mere existence of a border would be an extra cost. If the hon. Gentleman wants to know the truth of the matter, he need look no further than at the situation that exists between Canada and the United States. The hon. Gentleman might not like it, but that is the truth.
It is an inescapable fact that if, as the nationalists tell us in the White Paper, Scotland were to have a widely divergent immigration policy, which would be necessary for such of their economic plans as they have been prepared to tell us about, the operation of a common travel area of the sort that currently works well with the Republic of Ireland simply would not operate. You cannot have your cake and eat it on this occasion.
Last but not least, Mrs Anne McGuire.
The impact on employment would be serious in some of the most economically fragile communities in Scotland in our coastal and island communities. I have to say that the First Minister’s comment about blockading Scottish waters went beyond the ridiculous, but it makes me wonder whether that is why he seems so desperate to cosy up to Vladimir Putin.