The hon. Gentleman would be right, but for my next three points, which I believe will meet that argument. First, we face a problem with the clawback. Barely a molecule of British lamb gets to France because the clawback operates as an effective barrier to imports, and the French have perfectly good access to alternative supplies from Ireland and Spain where the clawback does not operate. The United Kingdom therefore has insuperable problems in getting lamb into that market, and it is on that export market that the fate of our lamb-rearing industry depends. Domestic consumption is declining and the variable premium may have arrested it. We cannot prove statistically that that is so, but the growth market is on the continent and, above all, in France.

The second reason is the competitive position of lamb in relation to other meats. I have a great deal of sympathy with the pig producer, who gets little support from the Community and does not want it. The situation is increasingly hard for those sectors which get little support, or where the regime has already been reformed, as is the case for beef, and the new regime will apply from 3 April. Although many producers are not sure how it will apply, there is still a level of support of £840 per tonne. In other words, the equilibrium in the meat sector is being distorted by the existence of both reformed and unreformed regimes.

Thirdly, the regime is now an extremely expensive affair. In 1988, the estimate of expenditure was 1 billion ecu and it was necessary to add 300 million ecu to that. This year, the allocation is 1·45 billion ecu and my information is that at least 220 million ecu will have to be allocated to meet the commitment. There are reasons for that. In 1988, that budget had to cover advance payments which would otherwise have been made in 1987 because of the crisis in the budget. The number of uses for which application has been made has also increased significantly, partly because the system on the continent uses the French premium as its market premium. That premium, of £15 or £16, is of great assistance to Mediterranean producer's in particular and gives them a greater incentive both to claim and to rear.

We must also remember that the goat element in the system is becoming more important. My hon. Friend the Member for Basingstoke (Mr. Hunter) said that we were now taking only 35 or 30 per cent. of the revenue from the sheepmeat regime. A few years ago, we were taking about 90 per cent. of the revenue from the system. The change is the result of the Iberian accession to the Community, which has diluted the share that the United Kingdom had. It has also reinforced those who might be able to live with the status quo.

The variable premium in its present form is difficult to support either in budgetary terms or in terms of consumer interest, and it is no longer an infallible support for the producer. There is a good case for saying that the British interest, which lies in access to the continental market place, is no longer served by a system that has become a barrier to access to that market. I know that my right hon. Friend the Minister will say that all the cards are still to play and that most countries do not know quite what they want from the new system, and I accept that that is the case. However, I would not wish him to leave the debate with the impression that there is a unanimous belief that we should defend the variable premium to the last. I for one no longer believe that its maintenance is in the interests of the United Kingdom.

I urge my right hon. Friend to press on with the policy of stabilisers, with those additional ancillary measures such as set-aside and the woodland scheme which are designed to soften its impact and provide relief for farmers with particular difficulties. The reason for this is to do with the international situation, the background being the GATT talks with the United States. The United States has made a major error of negotiating policy in putting forward the zero-zero option, which has let Europeans off the hook. Nobody will negotiate seriously from that starting point. Even the Australians say that it is an untenable negotiating position.

At some stage, the American negotiator will agree to abandon that objective because it is no longer obtainable, and many people, including some hon. Members, will applaud that magnificent gesture. But he will then say to the Community, "We want to remove your trade-distorting measures." That is where the Community must get into the real negotiations. The trade-distorting measure, in the American definition, is the double pricing system that lies at the heart of the CAP. The Community will not negotiate that away. It is inconceivable that a Majority in the Council of Ministers will agree to give the Commission such a negotiating mandate. If we cannot negotiate on that, we must prove that we shall continue the process of gradual reform, or we shall find ourselves in a major clash with the United States.

One can illustrate this by the demands made, particularly by the German Minister, for cereals. I hope that my right hon. Friend will take the opportunity to say what a ludicrous idea that would be. The philosophy behind the quota is that, if one limits the quantity, the price can rise, but if the price of cereals rises we shall become more vulnerable to the cereal substitutes which enter the Community without any restraint on quantity and with a relatively small tariff that is bound by GATT.