East-West Relations

Part of the debate – in the House of Commons at 7:10 pm on 28 January 1980.

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Photo of Mr Julian Amery Mr Julian Amery , Brighton, Pavilion 7:10, 28 January 1980

I shall not try to argue with the hon. Gentleman about the details of the best way to proceed. If we, Americans and Europeans, want to contribute to a solution to the problem, the first thing that we must do is to bring stability and security to the area. I believe that that requires a Western military presence and an understanding with both Egypt and Israel. From that, many things could flow. Until we have established an element of security, to try to propose solutions is to put the cart before the horse.

I doubt whether the credibility of the West can be based on a purely defensive posture. For years we accepted that it was normal for the Soviet Union to support national liberation movements—the Patriotic Front, SWAPO, the PLO, the PDRY and Polisario. We have had to think in terms of paying the Soviets in the same coin and of giving support—without too much shame of employing subversion—to the forces in Angola, Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Ogaden that are fighting against Soviet colonial domination. Above all, we must give support to the rebels of Afghanistan who are defending their country's freedom with the same gallantry as Marshal Tito's partisans and the Chetniks of General Mihailovich who fought in Yugoslavia during the war.

On the question of Iran, it may be possible to place hope in the new president, Mr. Bani Sadr. I do not know whether he will be stronger than the Bazargan regime. But the disintegration of the country is far advanced. In 1953 the friends of the West took over the country only 48 hours before the friends of the Soviet Union had planned to do so. President Carter recently said that "an attempt by an outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force". I applaud that statement. However, in an age of nuclear parity, whoever gets his blow in first is likely to remain master of the field. If we wake up tomorrow to find that the Soviets have driven from Herat to Bandar Abbas—about an eight-hour drive—it will not be easy to dislodge them. President Carter's pledge will not be easy to fulfil.

Five years ago, the problem would not have been too difficult to resolve. If we had acted upon the question of Angola, I believe that today's problem would not have arisen.

Today, we are faced with a different situation. I am convinced that further appeasement of Soviet imperialism must lead to catastrophe. We have run out of space to trade for time. But we should be under no illusion that the risks of resistance to Soviet imperialism are grave. The Soviet military and industrial complex is dominant in Moscow. Today, there is no Stalin to shoot the generals and maintain the authority of the civil power. The internal tension, whether economic, social or national, is acute. The shortage of raw materials is making itself felt. There is a prevailing cynicism against Communism; and the hierarchy is trying—as in Rome—to tighten up orthodoxy.

Worst of all, the Soviets know that time is not on their side. They know that if the West begins to rearm, the parity that they enjoy will vanish. It has been said that the bear is a cautious animal. I am not sure about the Russian bear, on its track record. Angola and Ethiopia were very daring operations. We shall need grim resolve to rearm on a scale that Whitehall has not begun to contemplate. I suspect that there will have to be nothing less than a 40 per cent. increase in the defence budget in order to meet the need. We shall have to make sacrifices of cash, convenience and comfortable illusions. There will be setbacks. There is always a price to pay for the mistakes that have been made, and there will be a high price to pay for the appeasement of the last decade.

In the past, Britain's role has never been that of a super-Power. But in the struggle against Spanish, French and German hegemony we were the architect of the alliances that maintained some freedom in Europe. Today, the challenge is a global one and the response has to be global. We have to mobilise the United States, Europe, China, Japan and as many countries of the Third world as will join us. This will call for very skilful political leadership.

It is the strength of my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister that from the beginning she has assessed the dangers ahead—since, so to speak, 1974. She is the only one of the Heads of Government in the Western world whose record is entirely untarnished on this basis. No one is better placed to inspire and animate our allies in the task ahead. She has also the great task, which is well within the compass of her imagination—although it may mean, as with William Pitt in his day, sacrificing some of her aspirations—of mobilising and exploiting the technological resources of our own country and healing the social divisions that we cannot afford in the crisis that lies before us.