Scotland Act 1978 (Repeal)

Part of the debate – in the House of Commons at 3:50 pm on 20 June 1979.

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Photo of Mr George Younger Mr George Younger , Ayr 3:50, 20 June 1979

Yes, I entirely agree, but, to be totally realistic, I think that very few people looking seriously at the effects after the Scotland Act was put into effect could realistically envisage it being entirely reversed, even if the trend of opinion went against it thereafter. To that extent, therefore, although technically the hon. Gentleman is perfectly right, I do not think it realistic to envisage its reversal, and I think that that is an ample justification of a 40 per cent. rule, or something similar, which, as I say, is pretty common practice in constitutions throughout the free world.

Although the expression of that principle in the 40 per cent. provision in the Act was stoutly contested by the promoters of the Scotland Act, those same people contended no less stoutly that the test would be passed with ease. In their defence they prayed in aid the opinion polls on the subject which were regularly held over a considerable period from 1975 onwards. I think it worth while to reflect on these polls and to note the lesson from them—not necessarily the lesson that polls get things wrong but the lesson that the interpretation of polls requires great care.

If one walked up to a man in the street and said "Would you like some aspects of your government improved and brought under more local democratic control?", leaving him to suppose that these improvements could be secured without cost of any kind, it would be most surprising if he were to answer "No." I mean no disrespect to the pollsters, but that, in effect, is what most of them did. Indeed, I think it surprising that the apparently considerable majority in favour of substantial devolution suggested by most of the polls in the years 1976 and 1977 was not much greater. In most cases, at any rate, no one said to those canvassed "Of course, these arrangements would cost a good deal. There might be problems in working out a responsible system of financing them. They might prejudice Scotland's influence at Westminster, and they might set up a train of events as a result of which Scotland would stumble into independence." Nobody said those things. The polls got the simple pat answer.