Orders of the Day — Unemployment

Part of the debate – in the House of Commons at 12:00 am on 24 July 1978.

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Photo of Mr Harold Walker Mr Harold Walker , Doncaster 12:00, 24 July 1978

The hon. Member asks how many people were temporarily stopped at the time the unemployment figure was 1½ million-plus. The figure was 500,000 or thereabouts.

Therefore, this figure cannot be predicted, and what it will be a year hence is nothing but a mere guess. However, in making provision for staff and premises for payment of benefit, it seems wise to consider the whole range of possibilities, no matter how unlikely, which means allowing for a number temporarily stopped which takes account of the historical pattern and the normal levels.

In any case, the assumption of 1·7 million which was made last autumn has subsequently been revised downwards. The Government gave the revised assumptions to the Government Actuary, and his report, Command 7232, published in March 1978, showed an estimated level of 1·55 million, which again included the temporarily stopped and adult students. On that basis, the official unemployment figures in 1978–79 would be expected to be lower than at present.