I apologise to the Minister and to my right hon. Friend the Member for Chesham and Amersham (Mr. Gilmour) for not being in the Chamber to hear their speeches, but I was on a Select Committee. I hope that in my speech I shall not repeat too many things that have already been said. If I ask the Minister to answer a question I shall understand if he has already dealt with that point, and I shall look it up in the Official Report.

I was interested in the speech by the hon. Member for Rochester and Chatham (Mr. Bean), who represents an area with a strong naval interest. He did a service by explaining his constituents problems in terms of unemployment in relation to the Governments' defence policies.

The hon. Gentleman made an important point, which seems to be coming to the surface in this debate, about the importance of large ships compared with small ships. Clearly that argument will develop in view of the recent report on the matter. It is the Government's duty to tell the House how they see it. It is dangerous to over-simplify. It is not right to suggest that the criterion for a successful ship is necessarily its size. My hon. and gallant Friend the Member for Winchester (Rear-Admiral Morgan-Giles) referred to the great expansion in the number of Soviet nuclear submarines. for example.

The main burden of my argument must centre around the main threat to Britain's defence interests. Despite what one or two hon. Members have said, I remain convinced that the real threat to our defence in the long term must be the Soviet Union's dramatic expansion of its naval forces over the past decade or so. We cannot evade the cold, hard fact that since the Cuban crisis we have seen a dramatic expansion in the quantity and quality of Soviet ships. We have seen the growing provision of facilities for the Soviet Navy world-wide, the growth in its nuclear forces. in its missile-armed submarines, its generally improved missile system and its naval presence in all the oceans of the world.

As always happens when the Government publish their White Papers, they eloquently describe the threat and the dilemma we face. Their analysis is always brilliant. It is the way in which they deal with the threat that causes serious doubts.

On page 5 of the white paper we read: The major Soviet threat at sea is posed by their very large submarine force of over 330 operational submarines: 130 of these are nuclear-powered. We have only to look at paragraph 17. which says: Eleven Delta class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines are now operational and can threaten all Europe and most of Northern America from Soviet home waters. We have only to look at the reference to the construction of a Soviet aircraft carrier, at a time when the Western world, particularly Britain, appears to be phasing out aircraft carriers.

Paragraph 19 refers to Soviet air power and the Backfire supersonic bomber, which has been introduced and which the White Paper says threatens NATO's shipping on the transatlantic sea routes.

The whole problem has been well analysed and summarised in the White Paper. We see that 45 per cent. of the ships in the surface combatant naval force of the Soviet Union are less than 10 years old—far younger than the NATO ships.

We have only to look at Lloyd's Register to see that over the past 18 years the Soviet merchant fleet has grown from 26th in the world to sixth. Of the world's total of 900 trawlers of more than 2,000 tons, 643 are from the Soviet Union. Lloyd's Register shows that 122 of the 139 fishing factory vessels of more than 10,000 tons are from the Soviet Union.

Hon. Members may ask what that has to do with defence. There is evidence that the merchant ships and fishing vessels have highly sophisticated equipment, which can monitor what the Western world is doing. There is also plenty of evidence that Soviet merchant fleets often carry defence equipment across the trade routes and oceans. That is why those statistics are significant to us.

We know that the Soviet Union has well over 100 survey ships, six missile support auxiliary ships and 25 repair ships, which enable its fleets to be more self-supporting. The Soviet Union's naval manpower—470,000 officers and ratings—is bigger than the whole of Britain's total defence strength.

I come to the question of the flanks. We have only to look at the chart on page 7 of the White Paper to see the growing preponderance of the Soviet Union's Northern Fleet compared with NATO's. In the Eastern Atlantic we are under growing threat, with a great expansion in the number of Soviet nuclear submarines, guided missile cruisers and destroyers. We know, too, that in that area a new canal has been built between the White Sea and the Baltic, which facilitates the expansion of the Soviet Navy into the oceans of the world.

On another vulnerable flank, in the Mediterranean, the Soviet Union has a permanent presence of about 60 ships. Another important area, upon which we depend for our oil supplies, is the Indian Ocean, where the Soviet Union has a permanent presence of at least 20 ships. Contrary to the comments of Mr. Gromyko in London recently, the late Marshal Grechko confirmed that it is the Soviet policy to continue to expand its forces. Admiral Gorshkov instructed the Soviet Navy to go to sea and stay there. As a result, the Soviet Navy is now spreading its tentacles to every ocean and sea. The Russian bear is learning to swim.

We must ask why Russia, with its vast land mass—a country that is largely selfsupporting—needs to expand its Navy in that way, to increase the number of its ships and the oceans into which it goes. Can the policy of encircling the Western world, of outflanking it, really just be defensive, as the hon. Member for Loughborough (Mr. Cronin) suggested?

We understand from all the lessons of history about the balance of power that any country, including the Soviet Union. wants to ensure that it is adequately defended. When it was expanding its sea power in the 1960s, that must have been a major consideration, but can it be the Soviet Union's sole objective? We must ask that question when we look at the cold, hard facts of what it is doing. Even the Chinese are telling us that the Soviet Union is expanding with aggressive purposes. We know that there are other objectives besides defence. It is part of the Russians' economic and foreign policy. They have obtained facilities in South Yemen, Somalia and Conakry, and no doubt will very shortly have facilities in Luanda. All this has political, economic and in the long term possibly very serious military implications for the Western world. It is a gradual political and economic subversion and erosion of the West's position.

We must assume from the evidence available that one of the purposes of the expansion of Soviet sea power is to gather intelligence. That should be taken for granted. We must assume also that another of the purposes is to enhance Soviet training and general capability in the world, and we must assume as well, from the evidence—unless someone can

produce new information to disprove it —that the Soviet objective, equally, is to have the potential to cut off completely the trade routes of the Western world. If the Soviet Union wishes to adopt an aggressive military policy, it has provided itself with facilities to do it. It can now cut off the lifeline of the Western world. It has the strategic capability to attack major NATO targets. It can support land and amphibious operations in almost any part of the world.

Therefore, we must make the assumption that it poses a real threat to the West. It would be irresponsible to make any other assumption, when we have an overwhelming duty in this House to set as our prime objective the adequate defence of this country and of the Western world.

In looking at the position of the West, and of Britain particularly, one can see the importance of sea lanes to our trade. and the importance of merchant shipping to our survival. Also one can see the importance of the continuing flow of oil and international trade to our survival. It does seem odd to react to this grave menace, as the British Government have done, by reducing the numbers of our destroyers and frigates by 15 per cent., our planned, conventionally-powered submarines by 25 per cent., our amphibious forces by 25 per cent., our fixed-wing transport by 50 per cent. and our Nimrods and helicopters by 25 per cent. The men in the Kremlin must be rubbing their hands with glee at the way in which we in Britain, and in some other Western countries, too, are reacting to the expansion of their forces. Indeed, one can see a look of glee on the faces of some hon. Members on the Government Benches when they think about this situation. It makes one wonder whether they have the true interests of this country at heart.

We have been warned by military leaders in the Western world, by the Secretary-General of NATO, by Admiral of the Fleet Sir Peter Hill-Norton, and by Admiral Sir Terence Lewin. These people are responsible Service leaders, in high positions, and they say that our defences are inadequate at the present time.

Additionally, we have to consider the growing importance of providing adequate defences for North Sea oil. Then there is the dispute with Iceland and the enormous strain it is imposing on the British Navy. There is also the unstable situation in the Mediterranean and the outflanking of the West in the southern Africa area.

Whether we like it or not there are certain remnants from our imperial past for which we are still responsible, such as the Belize and the Falkland Islands. What happens, for example, if Argentina moves into the Falkland Islands? We still have responsibilities towards the Falkland Islands and we have to be ready to respond to any possible threats to them.

I must pose one or two questions to the Minister. Our job is to show evidence of what is happening, then it is up to the Government to reassure us, which they have not done so far. We have a duty to pose certain questions and the Government have an obligation to answer them and show that they can provide this country and the Western world with adequate defence forces.

Have we provided adequate forces to counter the aggressive intentions and potential of the Soviet Union? Have we got adequate forces to protect our sea lanes, when 1,000 ships of NATO countries pass around the Cape route every month? Have we adequate escorts for convoys of ships in that area in time of war?

My hon. Friend the Member for Winchester referred to an important point concerning NATO's area of responsibility, which ends at the Tropic of Cancer. When we depend for so much of our trade on the South Atlantic routes, which are outside the direct area of NATO responsibilities, should NATO wash its hands of that area? The Minister has a duty to explain what NATO is doing and also what Britain is doing about this in terms of the NATO Study Groups. What action would the Western world take south of the Tropic of Cancer if there were any threats to Western interests in that part of the world.

The Minister also must tell us whether we have the capacity to defend Belize or the Falkland Islands; if we could look after our interests in North Sea oil, and have the capacity, at the same time, to cope with the Icelandic situation? I say "at the same time", because we should be prepared for all these things to explode at the same moment.

Are our vulnerable flanks—the Mediterranean and the northern flank—adequately defended, considering the growing preponderance of Soviet forces in the area? Have we sufficient amphibious forces to cope with a situation in the Norwegian area? Have we the ability to provide adequate reserve stocks for the Western and European sector if war is declared? We know from evidence that if war were declared the European NATO Powers would require about 100,000 tons a day of vital defence equipment from across the Atlantic, and from the United States in particular. Have we the capacity to defend convoys of ships that would have to cross the Atlantic bringing adequate reserves of defence equipment to deal with potential threats?

Then there is the question of slippage in the construction programme, which was referred to by my hon. Friend the Member for Ayr (Mr. Younger). Are we going to produce on time those ships which we are planning to produce? What is being done to ensure that they are delivered on time, in view of the fact that our naval defences have been weakened already?

It is the Government's job to satisfy the House that they are providing this country and Western Europe with adequate defence forces to cope with all these potential threats which exist in the world today, primarily from the Soviet Union. The Minister must do his best to answer these questions and give us some reassurance.

The United Kingdom, with its enormous naval history, provides 70 per cent. of NATO's forces in the Eastern flank and the Channel. We provide a distinctive service with our Navy, which has a wonderful history. Once we start reducing it below the capacity we need it will be difficult to restore it to the correct level.

The Government have a primary duty to ensure that this country is adequately defended. Succeeding generations will never forgive us if we let the country down and imperil their freedom. It is up to the Government to be more robust on defence and to tell the Soviet Union that so long as it expands its naval forces we shall respond and be ready to deal with any threat that comes our way.