asked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is his estimate of the rate of decline of the national dairy herd; and what effect this will have on future milk supplies.

No figures are available which give any indication of such a decline.

It is clear that the whole dairy section of the agricultural industry knows that the national dairy herd is declining, first because of the cost of feed—[Hon. Members: "Question."]—and secondly because of the dairy-to-beef conversion. [Hon. Members: "Question."] Is the right hon. Gentleman not aware that this will inevitably lead to milk rationing in this country next winter?

May I, for the second week running, say that it is absolutely out of the question that there will be any shortage of liquid milk for consumption this year? It is total scare-mongering to say otherwise. As for the hon. Gentleman's first point, the latest figures that we have are from the census taken in September, which showed the dairy herd up 3 per cent. on last year. We do not have the December figures. If I had them, I should of course give them to the House. Cow slaughterings are certainly up on last year's, but last year's were very much lower than they had been the year before. It may well be that the dairy herd is now younger and more productive.

Since my right hon. Friend recognises the serious situation that dairy producers face at this time, and since it is recognised that this has caused exceptional increases in feeding stuff costs, which have been extremely volatile, is my right hon. Friend seriously considering some variable scheme which might be included in the review, so that if there are further increases, as has been suggested, they can be accommodated, and if there are reductions they can be reflected as well?

I am afraid that my hon. Friend is, as he knows, trying to draw me on something on which I am not proposing to be drawn.

Is the Minister not aware that my hon. Friend's original question was about milk supplies, and that he did not mention liquid milk? What about manufacturing milk? What promises will the Minister and his right hon. Friend make to the farmers during the election? Considering the Chancellor's recent speeches about austerity, how will they manage to carry them out?

The actual production of milk for the year may show a very small reduction on 1972–73 overall. The review is under discussion. I cannot anticipate what my right hon. Friend will say.

Is it not essential, if the housewife is to have ample suplies of both milk and beef, that farmers should have an assured market and a reasonable profit to make it worth their while producing them? [Interruption.]

Order. By the traditions of my office I am not allowed to attend any election meetings—though I am quite enjoying this afternoon.

Bearing in mind that the well-being of dairy farming and beef production is so closely interlocked, will my right hon. Friend enable both to expand by giving a very early anouncement of a price review that will enable that expansion, and by implementing that review immediately, and preferably retrospectively?

The announcement of the price review will be not long delayed. Further than that I would not wish to go.

Does not the right hon. Gentleman agree that the decline in the dairy herd since September has been very significant? Indeed, at present cows are being slaughtered which are in calf, which is something that has never happened previously. Does not the Minister accept that the decline is alarming, in terms of next winter?

We have no figures more recent than those for September. They do not exist. I have seen Press reports and have listened to radio reports about the slaughtering of cows in calf. We have made the most searching inquiries. The answer is that the number of cows slaughtered when in calf shows no significant difference from the number of such slaughterings which usually take place, and that the pregnancy of the cows is a matter of weeks rather than months.