I do not propose to follow the right hon. Gentleman who has just sat down into the realms of prophecy in which be has indulged, nor am I particularly interested in the motives that have prompted him to take the action which he proposes to take on Monday night. I want to say a few words in reply to certain specific questions which have been addressed to me from various quarters of the House, and particularly from the right hon. Member for North-West Camberwell (Dr. Macnamara). In a Debate of this kind, which has been conducted for several days, it is not only inevitable but natural that it should turn so largely on the question of unemployment. No one who has been connected with the office with which I have been associated for about 12 months, can fail to realise that this question of unemployment is the most poignant, the most tragic and the most difficult by far of all our domestic problems.

Whatever Government comes into power, I am quite certain that they will be met with two difficulties, which I may describe as physical and economic. So far as the economic difficulty is concerned, it is quite obvious that it is impossible for any Government artificially to create markets. Any Government, therefore, must rely, either under our present economic system, or any other economic system, upon the normal channels of trade. The physical difficulty, as was pointed out by the right hon. Gentleman the Member for Miles Platting (Mr Clynes) yesterday, is that no scheme of relief affects more than a fractior of those who are at present unemployed. It is very little use creating relief schemes, and putting on them skilled artisans, skilled mechanics, lace makers and people in other kinds of specialised industries. As was pointed out by the right hon. Member for North-West Camberwell, it is obviously true that a large body of unemployed women are not in the least affected by any schemes of road making or anything else. I remember the right hon. Member for Carnarvon Boroughs (Mr. Lloyd George), in a speech at the close of last Parliament—I do not quote it with literal accuracy—stating that our policy, first of all, must be to restore our credit and to use it well. So many other countries have attempted to use their credit before they have restored it. The most hopeful and most profitable action that we can take is to do all that we can to use our credit and to improve it. Any one, any party, any body that deliberately embarks on a course which may result in imperilling the credit of this country is doing the worst possible service to the country and the unemployed.

In the very few minutes which I have I will answer one or two specific questions. The right hon. Gentleman asked about the export credit scheme, and he asked what was the amount authorised last year. That amount is £5,000,000. On the 7th January the total amount of credits which were either given or had been sanctioned though not yet taken out was just short of £8,500,000, while during the calendar year 1923 the aggregate amount of credit authorised was about £5,000,000; but as the credits are reduced so other moneys are available, and thus it does not in the least follow that these figures now represent the whole value of the scheme.

I was also asked what is the present position of the work, to which my right hon. Friend the Minister of Labour referred, that is being done by the railway companies and what work is at present actually in hand. I have been able to get this information, though I have no means of knowing whether the work has been completed or whether what I am saying exhausts it. The London, Midland and Scottish Railways have now stated definitely that they have placed contracts with different firms for 127,000 tons of steel rails, 5,000 mineral and merchandise wagons, and 150 locomotive boilers, representing expenditure to the extent of about £2,000,000. [An HON. MEMBER: "Do you take credit for that?"] I am answering a question and not taking credit for anything. The London and North Eastern Railway Company have allocated £3,750,000 which they propose to spend on new locomotives and wagons. It has now been stated that the locomotive, wagon building and carriage building programme for 1024 involved an expenditure approaching £5,500,000. In connection with the Great Western programme of £10,000,000 expenditure it is proposed to place orders for coaches and wagons with outside firms instead of having them built in the company's shops at Swindon. The Southern Railways have obtained a guarantee of something like £5,500,000 for the electrification of the southern section of their line.

The right hon. Member for Platting asked again and again how many men did all these schemes employ in the aggregate, and my right hon. Friend the Minister of Labour has made an estimate that 300,000 were employed directly and 100,000 indirectly, but it is not possible for him or me or anybody to say how many men are really employed and affected by these schemes. Take the Trade Facilities Act. I have got an estimate here of the number of men affected by that Act, but I place so little reliance on it that I think I should be entirely misleading the House if I were to quote it, and I am not going to do so. With the Trade Facilities Act and the Export Credits Act in operation, it is impossible to say how many men in any particular firm are employed by reason of those Acts, in addition to those who would be employed if those Acts were not in operation. Therefore, the only answer that I attempt to give is that, so far as we can judge from the best materials available, the estimate made by my right hon. Friend a few months ago was a conservative rather than an exaggerated estimate.

There is the question of the juvenile unemployment centres. My Noble Friend the hon. Member for Perthshire (the Duchess of Atholl) and an hon. Member opposite referred to the subject. The position is this: any local educational authority can apply for and obtain a grant of 75 per cent. for the purpose of setting up these centres. While this question of juvenile unemployment is perhaps the most tragic feature of the whole problem, it has to be admitted that these centres can deal with only a fraction of the unemployed boys and girls. I hope the House will believe me when I say that the Government are most desirous, in consultation with the local authorities, of developing these centres in every possible way.

I will give what appears to be the conclusion at which we have arrived with regard to the present position. As has been said, we were greatly disappointed when the check in the improvement, which seemed manifest a year ago, came to an end so early. We think that there are signs again of something like a steady improvement, though it would be unwise to make any rash prophecies. I can say there are reasonably encouraging signs of further improvement. None the less, this terrible load of unemployment, although it may be lightened, is, in my opinion, very far from being removed altogether. As a result of the Division which we are going to take on Monday night, it is probable that the grave responsibility for the Ministry of Labour will rest on other shoulders. May I refer to the closing words of the speech of my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister the other night I This is what he said: We shall endeavour, … in any matters where we can get unity in this House to help such a cause as agriculture or unemployment and we shall certainly not be behindhand in doing our utmost to put something into the common stock for the benefit of the country."—[OFFICIAL RFPORT, 15th January, 1924; col. 119, Vol. 169.] I hope the House will not misunderstand me when I say that any men or any Government who succeed in solving this question will deserve and will receive the gratitude of the nation.