Energy Supply
Energy and Climate Change
Written answers and statements, 5 November 2009
John Hemming (Birmingham, Yardley, Liberal Democrat)
To ask the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change what his most recent estimate is of the proportion of the UK's energy supply likely to be generated by (a) coal, (b) oil, (c) gas, (d) wind power, (e) solar power and (f) nuclear energy in each year from 2009 to 2020.
David Kidney (Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Department of Energy and Climate Change; Stafford, Labour)
The following tables show the results of the central scenario modelled for the July 2009 Low Carbon Transition Plan. It should be stressed that this is just one possible scenario based on a number of assumptions. There are necessarily significant uncertainties around this scenario, and a range of sensitivities could be considered.
Ultimately, the future generation mix will be determined by the market.
| Projected shares of electricity supply | ||||||||||||
| Percentage | ||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Coal | 32 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 25 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 23 | 22 |
| Oil | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Gas | 41 | 39 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 42 | 38 | 37 | 39 | 33 | 33 | 29 |
| Wind | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| Solar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nuclear | 16 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Notes: 1. The percentages shown in the table are those fuels specifically referred to in the question and the shares of other sources of supply make up the balance of 100 per cent. 2. Figures are rounded to the nearest per cent. | ||||||||||||
| Projected shares of primary energy demand | ||||||||||||
| Percentage | ||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Coal | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| Oil | 35 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Gas | 39 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 36 | 34 | 34 | 32 |
| Wind | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Solar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nuclear | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Notes: 1. Primary energy demand is measured in terms of fuel inputs and is equal to the sum of final consumption, energy industry demand, transformation demand and energy losses. 2. The percentages shown in the table are those fuels specifically referred to in the question and the shares of other sources of supply make up the balance of 100 per cent. 3. Figures are rounded to the nearest per cent. | ||||||||||||
Modelling results from the DECC Energy Model may differ slightly from the results of other DECC analysis. See for example, the analysis for the Renewable Energy Strategy which shows an illustrative mix of renewable technologies for meeting the 2020 RES target:
www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/energy_mix/renewable/res/res.aspx
The DECC energy projections can be found at:
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/projections/projections.aspx