Energy Supply
Energy and Climate Change
Written answers and statements, 5 November 2009
John Hemming (Birmingham, Yardley, Liberal Democrat)
To ask the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change what his most recent estimate is of the likely level of consumption of (a) gas, (b) oil and (c) coal by the UK energy supply industry in each year from 2009 to 2020.
David Kidney (Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Department of Energy and Climate Change; Stafford, Labour)
The following tables show the central scenario produced by modelling carried out for the July 2009 Low Carbon Transition Plan. It should be stressed that this is one of many possible scenarios based upon a number of assumptions. There are necessarily significant uncertainties around this scenario, and a range of sensitivities could be considered. Ultimately the level of fuel demand will be determined by the market.
| Projected fossil fuel uses in electricity generation | ||||||||||||
| Million tonnes of oil equivalent | ||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Coal | 29.4 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 22.7 | 24.6 | 23.1 | 21.0 | 22.7 | 20.3 | 19.1 |
| Oil | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Gas | 29.3 | 27.5 | 28.4 | 29.1 | 28.2 | 28.9 | 25.8 | 24.5 | 25.6 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 18.3 |
| P rojected t otal f ossil f uel u se | ||||||||||||
| Million tonnes of oil equivalent | ||||||||||||
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Solids | 35.7 | 33.1 | 33.0 | 31.7 | 31.8 | 28.8 | 30.6 | 29.0 | 26.9 | 28.5 | 26.1 | 24.7 |
| Oil | 80.1 | 80.6 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.5 | 81.1 | 80.7 | 80.3 | 79.9 | 79.5 | 79.0 | 78.6 |
| Gas | 89.1 | 85.7 | 85.3 | 85.0 | 83.3 | 83.1 | 79.0 | 76.9 | 76.9 | 71.9 | 70.6 | 66.1 |
The category "solids" consists of mainly coal, but includes a small amount of solid manufactured fuel.
Modelling results from the DECC Energy Model may differ slightly from the results of other DECC analysis. See for example, the analysis for the Renewable Energy Strategy which shows an illustrative mix of renewable technologies for meeting the 2020 RES target:
www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/energy_mix/renewable/res/res.aspx
The DECC energy projections published alongside the Low Carbon Transition Plan can be found at:
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/projections/projections.aspx