As others have commented, our world is spinning into increasing turmoil. It is not just the spreading violence and war; people across the globe believe that they can no longer trust the institutions they depended on for stability. They see widespread corruption and incompetence in their political, faith, intellectual, and even sporting and cultural elites. They see the galloping extension of disruptive technologies they do not understand, and they believe that their leaders neither understand them nor know how to control them. They fear the existential threats of climate catastrophe and global, perhaps even nuclear, war. Addressing these complex issues meaningfully in five minutes is not possible, so I will focus on just three questions for the Foreign Secretary.
First, on the Russia-Ukraine war, I am rather proud of the role our country has played to date in the war effort, going back long before the February 2022 invasion. While our military, intelligence and political contributions have been—and continue to be—very significant, we need to realise that we have a real problem of replacement of our stocks of weapons and ammunition, as the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, has pointed out. However, whatever the outcome of the war, and we do not know what it will be yet, there will come a stage—I fully recognise that now is not the time—for negotiations that bring it all to a political conclusion. Do His Majesty’s Government agree that, in the meantime, it is important to ensure that there are some protected channels of communication with Russia, which can be of use when the time comes?
Secondly, on Israel-Gaza, we all agree that the Hamas attacks of
In any situation of violent political conflict—I am fairly familiar with them—however tempting it may be to back one side or the other, when you do that, you simply become part of the conflict. Sometimes there is absolutely nothing else that you can do, and you have to back one side, but the consequence is a very limited role in brokering peace. If and when this war ends, there will need to be someone to ensure the security of Gaza and, despite what the Israeli Prime Minister says, that is not a role that can be undertaken by Israel. I rather doubt that our own country or our US ally can undertake it either. Are His Majesty’s Government taking seriously, as I believe they should, the offer from President Erdoğan of Turkey for his country to play a significant role, with others, in providing some security to all sides in that context?
Finally, I turn to Tunisia, a country that triggered the so-called Arab spring, which gave us such hope for democracy in the MENA region. How are His Majesty’s Government responding to the suspension of democratic structures and the imprisonment by current President Saied of many elected representatives, including the former assembly speaker, Sheikh Rached Ghannouchi, who had been working against the odds to build a pluralist and Muslim democracy? I emphasise “Muslim” democracy, not Islamist. What are His Majesty’s Government doing to press the President of Tunisia to release the democratic politicians of all parties and allow them to build a new pluralist and democratic Tunisia, which can give hope again to all of us for democracy in that region?
]]>There is not much doubt that the reason that we are addressing these statutory instruments, and indeed the wider question, is as a consequence of Brexit. Without Brexit, none of these issues would have been around. The majority of people in Northern Ireland did not vote for Brexit—they voted to remain—so when we talk about the people of Northern Ireland wanting this, that or the other, one of the things we should remember is that they did not want Brexit.
The consequences of Brexit were all known in advance. They were not all paid attention to in advance—some people did not want to see what the consequences were—but they were there to be seen. Ironically, the idea of Brexit was supposed to be that we would be free in the United Kingdom—whatever exactly that meant. But what do we find so many years later? That we cannot talk about anything at all without paying attention to Brexit and giving off about the fact that we cannot ignore the European Union and we wish we could. That is what I hear, but we cannot ignore it.
The reason for the protocol was not to address problems in Northern Ireland; it was—and I have said this many times—that a consequence of Brexit was to damage the relationship with the European Union and the United States. After a couple of Prime Ministers not making much of a show of things, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak realised that the key thing for him to do was to repair the relationships with Europe and the United States, because, despite all the talk of being able to have lots of agreements, co-operation and all sorts of things, it was not possible at all; you have to have relationships with these two powerful entities.
The idea that the wishes of some of the people of Northern Ireland should drive the interests and decisions of the British Prime Minister and the wider world is not very realistic. We end up having to address the reality and the consequences. We can be cross about it, and I understand that. We can feel let down, even betrayed, and I understand that. But in the real world there are consequences and we have to try to find some way of addressing them.
Another thing I have heard about is inclusivity. Of course, the Good Friday agreement was not inclusive, because the DUP and the UKUP, as it was at that time, walked out. They were not part of the Good Friday agreement; they never supported it. In fact, there was talk about the only thing that ever changed, but actually there were changes under the St Andrews agreement and they turned out to not be a very good idea in the long run for some of the people who wanted to see those changes. For example, it brought about the fact that we have a Sinn Féin First Minister, which is not something that some of the people who demanded changes would have wanted to see. We have to be very careful what we ask for.
It is also the case that the whole structure of the Good Friday agreement and the Assembly was not entirely inclusive. It included unionists and nationalists—and the noble Lord, Lord Bew, was talking about the two communities—but there is an emergent third community, which has a very strong view about things and which is not partisan unionist and not partisan nationalist. It takes a view that what we want to do is to find what is in the best interests of the people of Northern Ireland at the particular point when that generation is making a decision. At the moment, that may well be to stay within the United Kingdom, and in a generation or two generations’ time a different decision may be taken. It is not a partisan view, but the whole structure of the Assembly’s voting arrangements is not inclusive from that point of view.
Some people will not sign up for agreements—and almost all of us at one point or another do not want to sign up for an agreement—but the one thing we must understand is that, when we do not like an agreement or want an arrangement, the solution is not to bring down the whole system of government. If we do not agree with something in Westminster, we vote against it and we argue against it, and we try to persuade people of it, but we do not bring Westminster down, because that would bring chaos. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP have found ways of bringing down the structure of governance in Northern Ireland, and it has not made for a better life for the people of Northern Ireland or for more stability in Northern Ireland. We have to remember that. I say to the Minister, and to any future Minister on the other Benches who may have the responsibility, that we need to end the notion that, if you do not like what is happening, the solution in Northern Ireland is to bring down the whole system of government. Whatever else happens, we have to find a way of making sure that that does not happen.
I have a good deal of sympathy with some of the things that have been said on the other Benches, particularly the presentation by the noble Lord, Lord Dodds. There is a great deal of truth in what he says. Promises have been made, undertakings have been given and a certain spin has been presented about what is said in these documents, what the outcome of them is and so on. He is quite right. But the question is: what is the alternative?
I have said a number of times, in your Lordships’ House and in other places, that in my political judgment—we can all be wrong—the people who need a Northern Ireland Assembly most are the pro-union people of Northern Ireland. That is the only place where they will really have a platform to express their views and have their say. It is absolutely not an unlimited say, but at least it has the possibility of being expressed. That is why I have said, on a number of occasions, that, without an Assembly, there will be a drift towards what I have called de facto joint authority, not de jure—we will not see votes and things like that. What will happen? The people on this side of the water will find themselves wanting to co-operate with others who have a more powerful economy and position in the world than Northern Ireland on its own, and that is where the drift of politics will go.
I understand the protest and the anger, and that things do not look as they were meant to and so on. But there is a sense in which Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has tried to save unionist people from themselves, in a way, and from what some of them were trying to do. There is a limit to where protests can take you, and they can take you to the point of self-destruction. At some cost to his own skin, I suspect, Sir Jeffrey has pulled things back and said, “Look, this is the best I can get. I’ve tried really hard—I honestly have—and this is absolutely the best that I can do. You may not like it and you may be disappointed in it, but I’m trying to do the best for Northern Ireland”. I think he probably has done the best that he can do, and we have to see it in that context and in the wider and longer context: the question of what the relationships will be further down the line with this country, with our other neighbours, with a changing global economy, with a changing demography in Northern Ireland and with a changing set of views among the different groups of people in Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland is not a homogenous entity, and those people have to find a way of living together with their differences. That is a real challenge. The whole world has not found a way of living with difference, which why we are hurtling into the third global conflict at the moment. Actually, Northern Ireland is finding its way out of a conflict. It is an awful struggle, and it is very difficult and extremely painful, and it will not necessarily bring the outcome that any particular group wants. But now, and in the future, it is a place where people are not being killed, children are not being left fatherless and motherless, and parents are not frightened about their children going out for the evening because they might not come back. That is a change for the better.
For me, it is not the detail of these instruments but the symbolism that has given the possibility of getting stability within Northern Ireland, which is in the interests of all the people of Northern Ireland—albeit that almost every section and group has had to make some sacrifice and compromise in the interests of that better future.
]]>“Love God with all your heart … Love your neighbour as yourself”.
When you next look into the eyes of one of your own children or grandchildren, you will see the miracle of a wonderful human being. You do not want them to suffer, be beaten, shot or blown up, have their limbs amputated without anaesthetic, live in misery or die in agony. That is too awful to contemplate. When you next look at a picture of a child—a Jewish child, a Palestinian child, Muslim or Christian or any other child—are you reminded of your own children, or have you lost that sense of our common humanity? With the killing of innocent children, much less the killing of thousands and thousands of them, there can be no excuses, no exceptions, no caveats and no shifting of the blame to someone else for their deaths. Does the Minister agree that it is not just “the other” who is being killed? Our common humanity is being destroyed.
]]>It is very difficult to approach this debate calmly. One might argue that there is no reason to be calm. Horrible, frightening things have been happening in Israel and Gaza and it is natural to rage and wish for vengeance and to identify more with one side of the conflict than the other. Like other noble Lords, I condemn without reservation the horrible terrorism of Hamas. I appreciate how, for Jewish people, the Hamas atrocity means more than even the awful killing that has just taken place, because it reflects memories of the Holocaust and historic anti-Semitic pogroms.
I also identify very strongly with my Christian co-religionists, who hoped to be safe when they sheltered in the third oldest Christian church in the world but found no sanctuary there. Dozens of them were killed by an IDF missile. Are those Christians simply to be regarded as collateral damage? Are they not human beings too? Surely ordinary people, old and young, living in their own place, whether in Israel or Gaza, should be able to enjoy peace, freedom and security, be they Jewish Israelis, Palestinian Muslims or Christians. Communities should not be imprisoned behind fences, starved of food, medicines and water, and subject to collective punishment. This is not only wrong but not a defence of Israel and the values of Israel.
One of the lessons of recent times is that armies with massive military capability less often win wars than they did in the past, whether in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, or Syria. Hamas more closely resembles the Taliban than al-Qaeda or ISIS because it is a governing authority that has run a defined territory for some years. That should give us pause for thought. Some 20 years after US troops entered Kabul, the Taliban were back in charge of Afghanistan and getting the full support of China. Many billions of US dollars were spent in Afghanistan, many lives were lost on all sides and the standing of America was severely damaged in the eyes of the rest of the world.
Israel is in an even more difficult situation—a small country in a dangerous neighbourhood embarking on a ground invasion of Gaza that will not only result in the deaths of many ordinary Palestinian people and Israeli soldiers but will likely open up a war on other fronts, notably in the north with Hezbollah, backed by Iran.
One of the first IDF soldiers to die was Ido, the son-in-law of my old friends, Robi and Charlotte Friedman. He left a young wife, Noga, and three young children. The proposed ground offensive will be a death mission for many hundreds or perhaps thousands of other young Israeli soldiers, and its aims are unachievable. Even if every Hamas operative in Gaza was killed, it would not address the membership of Hamas and other extremist groups in the West Bank, Lebanon and Jordan. Indeed, it is already acting as a recruiting sergeant for extremist groups across the world, including—as colleagues have noted—in this country, where we are seeing increasing anti-Semitism and Islamophobia.
Is there a considered Israeli plan? Has there been serious consideration of the consequences? The US military does not think so. As the noble Lord, Lord Reid, said, going in to deal with well-armed terrorists occupying 300 miles of tunnels is one thing; how to get out again is another. Even before the ground offensive starts, the United States and the United Kingdom are finding that European allies are asking questions about the strategy and calling on Israel to hold back, not only to protect the hostages and provide humanitarian aid, but to give time for reflection about the wisdom of such an attack.
I have been warning for years in your Lordships’ House that we are sliding into a third global conflict, and this development in Israel and Gaza is not hermetically sealed from the Russia-Ukraine war, where Iran also plays a background role. The causes and consequences of this conflict are not just local; they are international.
While I was, like everyone else, shocked by the savagery of the Hamas attack and disturbed by the indiscriminate nature of the IDF bombing, I was not surprised. I have visited Israel frequently over many years, and in recent times I could see how the ill treatment of Palestinians was creating a powder keg. Do we really think that there is no relationship at all between the replacement in 2022 of the most broad-based Government in the history of Israel with the most hard-line Government ever and the worst terrorist attack in the history of the State of Israel the following year? Understanding consequences is absolutely not justifying them, but not only have we seen hundreds of thousands of Israelis coming out week after week, month after month, to protest against the Netanyahu/Smotrich/Ben-Gvir coalition, but we know that now more than 80% of Israelis themselves blame that Government for their contribution to the current catastrophe.
That is why I was somewhat dismayed that our Prime Minister and President Biden initially appeared, while rightly responding with support for Israeli people in the face of the Hamas atrocity, to offer support to Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu whatever he decided to do. They may well have said different things in private and may well have exerted much-needed pressure, but that is not how it looked in public. The demeanour of the two foreign secretaries, Blinken and Cleverly, seemed to find a much more balanced and wiser narrative and one that has made some progress in recent days. I hope from what he said earlier today that we will continue to hear that more thoughtful narrative reflected in the interventions of the Minister we are fortunate to have in this place, not only today but as we move forward.
Moving forward must mean finding a political settlement. There is no military solution and no political solution that does not take account of the needs of Palestinians. I have been involved with this region for many years and no proposal that fails to take account of the political need of the Palestinians will work. I ask His Majesty’s Government to commit themselves in this very difficult circumstance to work for peace. Those who work for peace are often attacked by both sides, but working for peace is the only way to provide a future for our children and grandchildren.
]]>In doing so, it is important for us to try to deepen our understanding of what is happening in our wider world. It is changing, and it is not easy to know how best to deal with it. It is important that we stand up for principles, for example those of human rights. I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Collins of Highbury, for commending my noble friend Lord Alton of Liverpool for his strong stance in that regard—not only in respect of China, but notably so.
I also noted what the noble Lord said about Taiwan and the WHO. It reminded me of an experience I had myself quite some years ago. I was president of Liberal International, which has had consultative status on the ECOSOC committee of the UN since 1985. But, in March 2007, the DPP, a member party from Taiwan, was on a Liberal International delegation at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. The question of WHO membership for Taiwan was raised by the DPP member—not very surprisingly. There was no questioning of the diplomatic status of China, which had always been respected by Liberal International—just the possibility of WHO membership for Taiwan. However, the People’s Republic of China took grave exception to this, and in May of that year, 2007, just a few weeks later, the UN NGO committee recommended the withdrawal of general consultative status for Liberal International because of this incident.
I discussed this with UN representatives from a number of our friendly nations: the United States, all the EU members and the ambassadors of Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Israel and of course the United Kingdom. All of them were opposed to the exclusion of Liberal International on the basis of this episode. However, it became clear that it was going to be approved anyway, because the People’s Republic of China in 2007 effectively had control of the United Nations General Assembly. There were enough of the other members that were going to support the PRC whatever the situation. So, I engaged directly with representatives of the People’s Republic of China at the embassy here in London, and after negotiations we were able to reach an agreement. It was that Liberal International would accept exclusion for one year but the PRC would not object to its restoration and, when restored, the LI would observe a self-denying ordinance whereby its delegates would not address, in the name of Liberal International or as part of its delegation, issues that referred to its own domestic agenda. Others could refer to the case of Taiwan but not the Taiwanese. The Taiwanese could refer to anything else; Taiwan was not even mentioned in the agreement, but the background to it was very clear.
That was accepted by the PRC and I wrote to the chairman of ECOSOC in that regard. Liberal International was removed for 12 months and then came back. There was no objection from PRC and has not been in the 15 years since then. I took three things from that. The first was that, while I had previously visited Taiwan, I had not, I think, understood quite how exquisitely sensitive the issue of Taiwan was. Indeed, one of the diplomats from the embassy here said to me, “It is the most important foreign policy issue for China”. I said, “Look at all the other important issues”, but he said, “No, you don’t understand. It is the most important issue”. I think we need to keep that in mind.
Secondly, whatever our thoughts about these things and however much support we have from our traditional friends, the General Assembly of the United Nations has, in effect, been controlled for some decades by the PRC, which also has its veto power in the Security Council. Thirdly, and more positively, if one were to reach an agreed and negotiated outcome, the PRC would live with it and continue to do so. As I said, 15 years later, it has not reneged on the decision on Liberal International.
The situation in our world changed and we have to recognise that we are no longer quite the power that we were in the West. In 2008, undoubtedly educated by that experience the previous year, I wrote a paper with my friend Sundeep Waslekar about talks and dialogue in the Middle East. We did not call it “the Middle East” because he comes from India, so I learned that to him it was “west Asia”—another example of how we need to take into account the cultural and intellectual perspectives of others from a different part of the world. It was published in India and Global Affairs in 2008. We wrote:
“If Israel and the Arab parties do not find a comprehensive solution soon, Iran can be expected to be an even more direct player in the near future. If a few more years are allowed to pass”,
Russia and China will develop significant stakes in the region. We also said that, at that time, it would have been possible to negotiate knowing English, Hebrew and Arabic, but if it were left too long people would need to learn Russian and Chinese as well.
One of the difficulties that has emerged is about our understanding and appreciation that people have very different perspectives from ours. As liberals in the Isaiah Berlin tradition, we have long been prepared to indicate that, of course, others have cultural differences from us and different principles and perspectives. But when they start having different perspectives on, say, human rights or fundamentally different cultural perspectives, or an attachment to forms of religion we do not easily accept, our tolerance and appreciation of those differences sometimes become difficult to sustain. For example, in July 2023, an article in China Daily, “Toward a Fair World Rights Order”, described how very important it is that we accept that there is no enforcement of
“uniformity on others, in the belief that certain traditions and systems are inherently superior”.
When we were sure that ours would be superior and would carry the day, we would have been happy to sign up for that, but now that that is no longer the case it is much more of a challenge for us. It seems to me that there is a very significant challenge, intellectually and politically, to us as we to try to struggle with this question.
I will take a more practical aspect: economics. One of the things that struck me a great deal when engaging with colleagues around the world was how absolutely enormously much of the rest of the world resents the power of the US dollar. The fact that it is the reserve currency has allowed massive debt to be created that can be resolved simply by printing more dollars. My sense of things, as I have listened to people over the last few years, is that we may well, in the next year or two, find Russia, China and others trying to construct some kind of alternative reserve currency. We have been through that before: sterling used to be a strong reserve currency. We still have our pound, but it is not in the same place as it was. If the United States finds itself experiencing that, it will be difficult intellectually—in terms of human, civil and political rights—to complain about it, but the consequences would be absolutely enormous; indeed, potentially catastrophic. It seems to me that there is a lot to be said as we struggle with these questions, so I entirely appreciate that, when the integrated review refresh talks about
“an epoch-defining and systemic challenge”,
it is absolutely right to do so.
It is important to appreciate that China is a challenge, a competitor—it may be a rival in some areas but I am not sure that we measure up enough for it to be a rival in the major areas. Economically, the rivalry is with the United States and the European Union, militarily it is with the United States, but what is crucial is that this rivalry, challenge, difference and disagreement do not lead us into what Graham Allison called the Thucydides trap of making China into an enemy. That is why it is crucial that the Foreign Secretary went to Beijing, kept open the channels of communication, talked, listened and engaged, because when someone is a competitor or a rival, but you maintain communication, they do not necessarily need to become an enemy. You can sit there and disagree, argue, discuss and perhaps even sometimes to some degree change each other’s mind, but you do not become an enemy. What humankind would not be able to sustain is China becoming an enemy of the United States, Europe and our allies.
There are many things that we can co-operate on. Some of them have been mentioned by the Minister: environmental questions, crucially, and artificial intelligence. I welcome the fact that the Chinese will be here next month at Bletchley Park. There is the whole nuclear question. In the 1970s, we had to engage across the Cold War divide with Russia and establish the CSCE and, ultimately, the OSCE. Why? Because we agreed? No, because we did not agree and we needed to engage with those whom we disagreed absolutely profoundly, including on all issues such as human rights, the economy and so on. Why? To make sure that there was still a world for our children and grandchildren to inhabit and not one that was destroyed by nuclear war.
It will be absolutely critical that on a question of that kind we have the kinds of structures that enable us to engage China and ensure the safety of the world. China can be helpful to us on the Russia/Ukraine question, it can be helpful to all of us on the Middle East question—the west Asia question—and it can even be helpful to us on issues such as North Korea, but it will be able to be helpful only if we can disagree in a civil way, engage in communication and collaboration on some common interests, and ensure that China becomes whatever kind of competitor—and it may be more successful than we would like to believe—but that it does not become an enemy.
]]>At that time, my old, much-missed friend Paddy Ashdown was the governor. He was there from 2002 to 2006 and, when he left and came back to London, he gave an important lecture later in 2006 at the LSE. He was able to give a remarkable list of achievements during those years of governorship. It is worth reflecting for a few minutes in this important debate, which we owe to the noble Baroness, Lady Helic, that progress was possible but did not happen without important contributions.
The first of those, of course, was the Dayton agreement itself. I have to say that I have always had some reservations about the process by which it came into being and, indeed, some of the content, but the fact that an agreement is there is important. No agreement or process is perfect, but having an agreement makes it easier to make progress than moving from a context of violent political conflict, and it is there to be worked with, so at least there is something on which to base progress.
The second lesson that I think emerged in listening to him speak was the vital element of leadership. Paddy was a leader. Some might argue, and some in the region argued at the time, that he was a bit authoritarian as a leader. In fact, I remember having a conversation with him when I was criticising another leader and said that he was a control freak, and Paddy said, “Well, what’s wrong with that?”
Of course, in truth, you must be careful about the form of your leadership. However, no progress is possible in such contexts without real leadership, courageous leadership and leadership that will undoubtedly be criticised by some who do not want to see it happening. One of the great dangers of the current crisis-ridden agenda—Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, China-Taiwan and so much more—is that it is a challenge for the western Balkans to retain European attention, never mind European leadership. It is crucial that we do not allow other pressures to obscure our view of what is happening in the western Balkans and that there is real leadership from outside, as well as hoping for leadership from inside.
Earlier today, a colleague from the region explained to me how there was now profound frustration that the promises of EU membership seemed continually to slip into the future, to the point where many there have no sense that it is ever going to come around. Each time the promise is made of process, it makes people more angry and more frustrated, and so some are turning to Russia and China. The noble Baroness, Lady Helic, outlined very clearly with her particular and personal knowledge of the situation how these many conflicts in the area are re-emerging in a way that is extremely dangerous. She spoke of the western approach being one of baseless optimism that no one wants to return to violent conflict. I am sure that she is right to be concerned about that.
Sadly, however, for some, it may be even more like another comment that Paddy made in that lecture. He recalled going to see the then British Foreign Secretary when the Bosnian war was at its height, in about 1993, and pleading for the intervention which was not to come for nearly two more years and after countless tens of thousands more deaths. His response was, “But they’ve always been like this, Paddy. The best thing to do is build a firebreak around the region and let it burn itself out”. Whatever might be said privately like that, that is no stance for a Government of this country to take.
Whatever the reason, the noble Baroness, Lady Helic, is certainly right to say that simply ignoring the problem and hoping for the best is not enough. Can the Minister not only assure us that the re-emergence of conflict in the western Balkans is something that concerns His Majesty’s Government but let us know what His Majesty’s Government are doing in collaboration with our European colleagues? We certainly cannot do it without collaboration but what is being done with them to pay attention to the deterioration and to do what we can to arrest it?
]]>After 9/11, I was invited to get involved with the World Federation of Scientists, because it had divided over how to respond to 9/11, with western scientists saying that it was their responsibility to use their scientific acumen to defeat al-Qaeda and eastern scientists saying that we must use our intellectual abilities to understand why we had the emergence of al-Qaeda and the terrible events of 9/11. This was notable, because the World Federation of Scientists had come together in the early 1970s because a number of nuclear physicists from the East and the West—from opposite sides in the Cold War—had become increasingly concerned that the use of their science in the cause of war rather than in the cause of peace threatened global survival. They shared their research, first of all with each other, across those divisions, then with their paymasters—the generals and politicians—to demonstrate to them that a nuclear war would destroy not just our side but all of us.
This contributed to an increasing appetite for engagement across the deepest divisions of our world at that time, between the United States and the USSR. Not because they agreed but precisely because they disagreed, it was necessary to find a way in which they could represent their disagreement without it leading to nuclear war. It was that kind of concern that led to the establishment of the CSCE and, ultimately, the OSCE. The Russians made a proposition for their own reasons, and the United States was mature enough to look beyond the Russian intent and see the possibility that this could take us all into a better place. The Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and the further developments have already been mentioned. The key was the acceptance that, in matters of war and peace in our region, we needed a forum where those who disagreed could engage with each other. Therefore, it was a matter of concern to me that in 2004 the scientists who had found that they could come together across the divisions in the early 1970s on the nuclear question were disagreeing on how to address the post-9/11 situation.
Since then, relationships have deteriorated further, and it seems to have become impossible for western states to retain a sufficient relationship with Russia, for example, to ensure that the forum of the OSCE is maintained—and the organisation, as has already been said, is now in crisis. Interestingly, in the Economist of
In other words, the problems of the OSCE that have been mentioned are part of a wider and deeper problem of polarisation. For example, the Council of Europe, another body in Europe, has found it impossible to sustain a relationship between East and West, with the expulsion of Russia last year. I appreciate the frustration of trying to engage with those one profoundly disagrees with and disapproves of, but the ramifications of either the collapse of the OSCE or excluding Russia and Belarus, following the Council of Europe example, could be disastrous.
It is tempting to say that this is because of the impossibility of working with Russia, and I am sure that there is a great deal of truth in that. I disagree profoundly with Russia on Ukraine and much else besides. But we must listen, for example, to what the Russian ambassador said at the United Nations Security Council last month, when he complained about the chairs of the United Nations Security Council and the OSCE showing a degree of anti-Russian partiality. I have great sympathy with them but, as a former Speaker in our strictly non-partisan British tradition of Speakers—as distinct from the partisan American tradition of Speakers— I understand how a chair in particular needs to be exquisitely sensitive to any perception of partiality, if such a divided body is to be able to survive and function across the lines of division.
Do His Majesty’s Government appreciate that, when we use terms such as
“weaponisation of the consensus principle”,
as was recently done in a report, however accurate that may be, it is important not only to be careful about simply portraying us as the good guys and the others as the bad guys? Rather, we need to see that the problem is that the relationship between our countries is breaking down in a catastrophic way. Allowing a good/bad split will simply result in either the collapse of the organisation, in the case of the OSCE, or it no longer representing both sides and no longer being able to fulfil the function for which it was founded 50 years ago, when it achieved such a great deal. It would simply become a kind of political representation of a military alliance on one side rather than being able to reach across.
Do His Majesty’s Government recognise the danger of OSCE collapse and therefore its inability to fulfil its purpose? Do they feel able to do something at a time of profound and deepening global polarisation to reach across the divisions to enable the survival and at least the functioning, if not the thriving, of the OSCE? Can the Minister help us understand what they hope, intend and—we all hope and pray—will be able to do?
]]>The problem in Ukraine is not new. I recall reflecting in this House, on
Now that we are effectively at war, I have some doubts as to whether we have prepared sufficient resources. I ask the Minister to let the House know whether we, and indeed Europe as a whole, are yet in a position to provide Ukraine the weapons and ammunition it needs, since we clearly did not have those when the war started. If Donald Trump is re-elected, as the noble Lord, Lord Owen, warned us, we may not be able to be confident that the US will continue to be a dependable ally and umbrella for European defence.
On the kinds of resources needed by Ukraine, I observe that despite the expectations in advance, this has been a remarkably old-style, conventional war. There have been hybrid elements, but much less impact from cyberwar than was predicted, for instance. To date, there has also been less of an air war than might have been expected, although that may change with the arrival of F-16s. This has been a much more traditional artillery war, with the major technical advance being the appearance of drones. Old-style defences of trenches and mines mean that whoever is defending territory is almost persistently retaining the upper hand. In the first stage, the Ukrainians were successfully defending against Russian attacks. Now it is the Russians who are defending conquered territory, which they have extensively mined and where they can transparently see the Ukrainian approach. It cruelly resembles Verdun and the Somme, the battles of World War I.
For the present, this looks to be a more traditional war of attrition than the kind of war that Europeans and Americans might have expected, with mobile manoeuvring offensives. I wonder if NATO’s approach and the training that NATO has been providing to our Ukrainian allies may have needed considerable adaptation. Can the Minister give us any indication of how far the NATO military approach and plans, and indeed the training we have been giving, have had to adapt to the realities on the ground in this war?
It is not just a question of military resources and tactics, vital as these are. On
“All have made the situation worse”.—[Official Report, 16/10/19; col. 114.]
As we reflect on another war, this time in Ukraine, we should think about whether our assumptions about war are borne out by the evidence now available to us.
Speaking on
“We spent over a trillion dollars. We trained and equipped an Afghan military force of some 300,000 strong—incredibly well equipped—a force larger in size than the militaries of many of our NATO allies. We gave them every tool they could need. We paid their salaries, provided for the maintenance of their air force ... What we could not provide them was the will to fight”.
A previous US President, Barack Obama, was of the same view as his director of national intelligence at the time:
“We underestimated the Viet Cong ... we underestimated ISIL and overestimated the fighting capability of the Iraqi army ... It boils down to predicting the will to fight, which is an imponderable”.
But Presidents Biden and Obama were wrong: the will to fight is not an imponderable; it is, in fact, as some of my academic colleagues have shown, a measurable phenomenon, and it is as likely to be as critical in the outcome of this war now as in the other conflicts I have mentioned. Can the Minister tell us how far we have been measuring—not just hoping about, but measuring and assessing—the will to fight of the two sides in this war? The outcome remains uncertain but, despite Russia’s military, economic and numerical superiority, the Ukrainians have to date shown remarkable resistance. Their will to fight will be crucial: are we assessing their will to fight? It will also be crucial whether the will to fight remains on the Russian side or is lacking: are we assessing that?
Does Europe have the resources? Does NATO have the right tactics and strategy? Are we assessing the will to fight? Finally, the Minister said that it could all be ended simply by the withdrawal of Mr Putin, but it is not just that. As has been pointed out, there are the enormous and horrendous crimes against humanity, exemplified by the ICC indictment against him. There is also the reconstruction of Ukraine, and foreign policy and substantial change beyond Europe. Have His Majesty’s Government stressed that the problem is no longer just Russia? As the noble Lord, Lord Owen, pointed out, there are other countries that do not necessarily share our view of this situation.
After the last two great and terrible global conflicts, the international architecture had to be refashioned. Can the United Nations survive without major reconstruction after this conflict? Are His Majesty’s Government looking at the substantial, long-term global and political consequences of this terrible war? As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said, it will not be possible just to return to the status quo ante bellum. The time will come, if it has not already, when we will have to address the enormity of the geopolitical as well as human consequences of this terrible, spreading war, the ultimate outcomes of which we cannot yet know.
]]>“The Government have brought forward this Bill because the Northern Ireland parties have been unable to form an Executive and subsequently set a budget”.—[Official Report, Commons, 10/7/23; col. 101.]
That is not true. It is not that they were “unable” but that the DUP was unwilling to form an Executive. The DUP’s Paul Givan resigned as First Minister following its objections to the Northern Ireland protocol.
It is entirely justifiable to protest against policies you do not agree with, complain about them, argue about them, debate them, but it is not justifiable to bring down a whole form of government as a protest, to bring down the Assembly and the Executive. It is quite true that Sinn Féin did the same thing: it was unwilling to form an Executive with the DUP previously, and that too was unacceptable. But there is a difference: Sinn Féin had a serious dispute with its partners in government and was protesting against them. As I say, it was not justifiable, but the difference is that the DUP on this occasion does not have a dispute with Sinn Féin—at least, not on this issue—but with the UK Government. The dispute is with the Government fulfilling a policy of Brexit that the DUP itself had urged upon them and supported, even though these consequences were emphasised to them by many of us. Brexit is a policy that most people in the United Kingdom now regard as a failed policy, and the majority of people in Northern Ireland never voted for it or supported it in the first place.
I entirely accept that if the Executive and the Assembly were restored tomorrow it would not resolve the problems that are described in the budget Bill. The abnegation of responsibility has worsened the financial situation, but it would not be resolved if there was devolution immediately. There is a huge deficit, as the Minister said—a black hole of at least £660 million and it may well be more. The consequences for all public services, and indeed the private sector too, in Northern Ireland are enormous. The education system is in chaos and the health service, which is the part of the public sector I know best, is dissolving before our very eyes. It is not just a question of increasing waiting lists and there not being enough money; it is now becoming clear that many of those who, like me, were consultants in the National Health Service in Northern Ireland are leaving. Some of them are taking early retirement; some are going across the border, and some are leaving Northern Ireland altogether. Many young people are choosing not to come in and, if they do, not to take up positions as partners in general practice or as consultants in the NHS. These are not matters that will be resolved overnight or even by the provision of money. There is a fundamental, deep disruption and disturbance in the way Northern Ireland works.
Trying to deal with this is not going to be at all easy. On the question of funding, does the Minister truly believe that the amount of money being made available by His Majesty’s Treasury is enough for Northern Ireland? Is it the case that, if all these other issues we are talking about, such as devolution and better co-ordination, were to be dealt with, there would be enough money? I am not sure that there is enough money to provide for the kinds of services the people of Northern Ireland ought to be able to expect as part of the United Kingdom.
We mentioned the question of the governance problem. Let us not forget that this is not the first time that the DUP has chosen to make Northern Ireland a difficult place to run. After the Anglo-Irish agreement, the slogan used was to make Northern Ireland “ungovernable”. That is different thing, and of course it was the case at that time that there was a Government here in Westminster who were determined to make sure that the rule of law prevailed and that Northern Ireland was properly governed. There was a police service that insisted on ensuring the rule of law. My colleagues in the Alliance Party used the law to ensure that people were made to go back to work in governance.
What is happening now is not about Northern Ireland not being governable. It is about Northern Ireland being no longer workable as an entity, and that is a different thing. It is entirely possible for people to make Northern Ireland unworkable, but what sort of an outcome is there going to be when you bring down the house around you? Does that serve the best interests of the inhabitants? We are in a very serious place whenever Northern Ireland becomes an unworkable place, and that is what is happening now.
So what should we do? First, we must understand that the UK Government are the responsible Government. In the absence of devolution, and even in its presence, the UK Government retain the responsibility for governing Northern Ireland, and therefore they have to take responsibility for the shambles that Northern Ireland is now in. I have been warning for years that this was what was happening and what it was leading to. The longer the Government keep postponing addressing this, the worse the situation gets.
So how should the Government address this? They tried to persuade the DUP to go into government with Sinn Féin; the DUP said no. They are trying now to persuade the Government to take responsibility for the financial consequences and they have pointed out what a difficult problem that is going to be. In fairness to the DUP politicians, when they were in a position of responsibility for both raising and spending the money, for example when Peter Robinson was leading Castlereagh council, of course I disagreed with them on many things, as did my colleagues, but he did act responsibly both in raising and in using the necessary funds, and keeping the books balanced. That is not happening now.
We have to think seriously how we deal with this. There is a question as to whether politicians have to continually have a veto over how things are run. Maybe the Government need to engage more and more directly with those in the business community, because they are the only ones who are going to keep things going. They are not going to argue about the constitution. They are going to say, “Let’s see how we can keep business going and make the money that is necessary for the wheels to go round”.
It is also important that, if strand 1 and strand 2 cannot operate, the British Government co-operate with the Irish Government to try to make things work as well as possible. If they do not, it is the people of Northern Ireland who will suffer ultimately. Northern Ireland’s position in the United Kingdom will become less and less viable as a proposition. Some people in Northern Ireland would welcome that, but it is certainly not something that pro-union and unionist people want to see. The question is whether the Government are prepared to go beyond the rigidity and resistance of some of Northern Ireland’s politicians or whether there will be continued drift and, ultimately, disaster.
]]>Another mistaken view was expressed by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who in the other place in November 2021 claimed that the days of big tank battles and land wars in Europe were over, and mocked his party colleague Tobias Ellwood, the chairman of the Defence Select Committee, for expressing concern about the cuts to British military capabilities. Three months later, Russia invaded Ukraine.
Old methods are never given up completely. Wars started on land, moved to sea and then airspace, and now to the cyberspace created by human beings. We have added to the spaces where wars may be conducted, but we have not abandoned the original spaces. So it is with the technology of war. We add new ways of attacking and resisting, but the old ways always remain available. Be suspicious of the credibility of anyone who says otherwise.
My second point is that the use of force is the one area where the state must maintain a monopoly and a convincing capacity. With healthcare, education, transport and many other social requirements, we may wish, and increasingly have wished, the state to provide, supply and manage them, but in none of them is a state monopoly essential or even, in my view, desirable. With increasing internal disruption and defending against external attack, it is crucial that the state maintains its monopoly. The recent coup attempt by the Wagner mercenaries in Russia shows what happens when a state allows any other model of the management of physical force.
In addition, the naive assumption that major war has gone away and that government is merely about providing domestic services is seriously mistaken and dangerous. If adequate resources are not provided for the defence of our country and our interests abroad against internal and external threats, a time will come when we will not be able to protect ourselves against attack.
This became the case with Europe, which for decades largely left it to the United States to be its protective umbrella, but no country has friends and benefactors who can be depended upon permanently to fulfil such a role. Countries have allies who will work with them when it is in their interests, not friends who will sacrifice themselves for no other reason than friendship. Our defence collaboration was never going to be based on the EU but on NATO as a defence alliance—and one that we nearly lost through neglect.
Finally, I want to say something about people. There is currently a superficially attractive notion that, with technology, we will be able to defend ourselves with a diminishing corps of people in our military. This is very ill-advised. There are many arguments already being made in this debate about the need to have enough people to operate the ships, planes, tanks and computers that we need, as well as those who can be called upon to apply military discipline and organisation to assist the civil power with the increasing incidence of pandemics, natural disasters and, in some cases, I am afraid, civil disturbance and illegal immigration. However, there is another aspect to it. If a significant section of our population have served in some capacity, they, their families and their communities have a very special sense of the value of their country and the need to take risks and sometimes make sacrifices to protect it and to defend our freedoms, culture, way of life and interests abroad.
Many people in our country no longer understand the need for this. They think that we managed in the past and that technology will save us in the future. Others live in a world that they wish existed rather than in the troublesome world of humanity that actually exists, with all its dangerous and unsavoury characters as well as the good people. Still others assume that we are all rational actors who will, in the end, weigh up the social and economic costs and benefits and act on those. In the context of war and existential threat, we as individuals and communities become devoted actors, not rational actors. Indeed, if we do not, our community will likely not survive.
]]>That is the sad side, the worrying side, the downside, of today. But, of course, there is a very positive element to this Bill. I want to take the second part of the Bill first, if I may, the so-called Dáithí’s law element. Some of us spend much of a lifetime trying to get a little piece of legislation passed. Young Dáithí, at a very early age, with the support of his parents Máirtín and Seph, and with friends and colleagues such as Fearghal McKinney, as the noble Baroness said, and others, has ensured not only that he is getting legislation passed but getting his name attached to it. That is a remarkable achievement and I hope it presages well for him in the future, making a positive contribution not only on his own behalf but on behalf of many other people as well. He started off life with difficulties, with hypoplastic left heart syndrome, and we all hope he will receive a transplant soon to enable him to be fit and lively and enjoy his life. But he has made a tremendous contribution, by endearing himself to people, by persuading them and by being such an attractive character.
I am delighted, as a doctor who came from Northern Ireland and qualified at Queen’s University Belfast, to see this legislation coming forward. But I am also a little bit sad. We are the last part of the United Kingdom to get this legislation, this so-called opt-out clause that enables us to have more organs for transplant. I am a little sad because it was not always so. One hundred years ago, in 1923, a young girl was born in Lurgan, County Armagh—the town I was born in—and she went on to be one of the world’s leading nephrologists. Her name was Molly McGeown. She qualified in medicine and, like many other women of the time, found it difficult to get an appointment as a consultant because the senior staff said they could not afford to employ people like her, a married woman with children, at that level. It is wonderful how things have changed, although I have to tell your Lordships that my own wife ran into similar problems herself when she was working as a young doctor. But things have changed, and they changed because of people like Molly McGeown. She was absolutely determined to go ahead, and she did. She established the renal unit at Belfast City Hospital; took forward renal dialysis; developed what became known as the Belfast recipe, a particular approach to renal dialysis that massively improved survival rates; developed a renal transplant programme that was of benefit not just to the people of Northern Ireland but way beyond; produced huge numbers of academic papers in her work as a professor at Queen’s University Belfast; and was a star, not just in Northern Ireland, not just in the NHS, but across the world.
So there was a time when we were able to lead things. Now, we find ourselves coming in behind the rest of the United Kingdom. It does not have to be like that, but part of the reason it is, is the political difficulties and stalemate. It is not that the legislation was not approved and passed by the Northern Ireland Assembly, or that politicians in Northern Ireland did not want to see such legislation. Of course they did, and they passed it, but other political difficulties supervened, and it got held back.
I hope that on this auspicious day, we are able to look forward to substantial progress, which takes us to the second part of my speech and the first part of the Bill: the difficulties of establishing an Executive and, because of that, the Assembly itself being in suspension. There were other, political ways that protests could have been made against what people did not want to see with the Northern Ireland protocol. It did not have to involve the suspension of the Assembly and the Executive, and everything that went with it. That this House is having to pass Dáithí’s law here shows just what a disaster it is for the people of Northern Ireland to have elected representatives but not be able to pass their own legislation—that it has to be done here and be delayed. I desperately hope we can move forward, and quickly.
When I heard about the Bill and the talk of a delay of another 12 months, my first reaction was for my heart to sink and I thought, “Oh, my goodness, another year waiting around for things to move forward”. But I often try to look on the bright side and I began to think, “Wait a minute, the Prime Minister may have something here. He may know perfectly well that he is not that far from an agreement; he may also know that that agreement might not be immediately accepted by some of those who have been negative about the Northern Ireland protocol; and he may well be creating a bit of space and time where it is possible for them to find their way towards supporting it”. Maybe some of them want to get to the other side of the local government elections before they will give support to it, or maybe there are some discussions that they need to have internally. Whatever the case, creating that space may give an opportunity for a positive result. I hope that that is the case.
I look at friends and colleagues on the other side of the Chamber and I very much hope that they will use their best offices and realise that if Northern Ireland’s Assembly is not put in place, and power devolves back to London, it will not be exercised by London alone: it will be exercised by London in collaboration with colleagues in Dublin. Therefore, I think we have to be thoughtful about the future and about the prospects, and I very much hope that they and their colleagues will find it possible to move quickly. We do not want to wait another 12 months until good legislation such as this is passed at the Northern Ireland Assembly, where it ought to be passed. We want to see it happening quickly, for the betterment of all the people of Northern Ireland.
So, I congratulate the Minister and his colleagues, especially today, on trying to take things forward in Northern Ireland and I very much hope that all of us, together, whatever our differing perspectives, can find ways of ensuring that Northern Ireland legislation is done, as much as possible, in Northern Ireland by the elected representatives there, for the betterment of all the people. Young Dáithí has given an example to us that the people who attacked John Caldwell can never give, because he has pointed a positive way forward for all of us and the next generation.
]]>