Clause 16
Climate Change Bill [Lords]
5:45 pm
Phil Woolas (Minister of State (Environment), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Oldham East and Saddleworth, Labour)
I thought that the amendment was one of the cleverest that has been tabled because of the point made by the hon. Member for Northavon. The figure sounds small but, as in all such matters, the devil is in the detail. He is right that the amendment was discussed at some length both in Committee and on Report in the other place, and I refer members of the Committee to the Hansard record of those debates.
The accusation has been made that the figure of 1 per cent. has been plucked out of the air. Nothing is further from the truth. All the figures under the Bill are scientifically based and have been debated robustly. In case the hon. Gentleman mistakes my tone of voice, let me reassure him. Why do we consider that the 1 per cent. borrowing limit is appropriate? Our analysis suggested that allowing up to 1 per cent. of a future budget to be borrowed would be consistent with the rising emissions that might result during odd weather. The right hon. Member for Suffolk, Coastal reminded us of the importance of that to the British—I think that he referred to the English, but I am sure that he meant that it was the British predilection to discuss it. Furthermore, we must bear in mind the uncertainty of emissions data.
There have been three large emission rises due to unexpectedly cold winters since 1990, the coldest of which led to emissions in those years that were between 3 per cent. and 4 per cent. higher than in the year before. Translated into the clause, that means that if 0.8 per cent. of the subsequent budget was borrowed—4 per cent. divided by the five years of the budget period—the shock could be absorbed within a 1 per cent. limit on borrowing and the budget would still be met. That is my methodology. I agree that it is not rocket science, but it makes mathematical sense. It is symmetrical.
A more serious point is that those extremes of climate are, of course, expected to increase with climate change.
Mr. Gummerrose—