Clause 2
Climate Change Bill [Lords]
9:00 am
Nick Hurd (Whip, Whips; Ruislip - Northwood, Conservative)
On behalf of the Committee, may I welcome you to the Chair, Mr. Atkinson? You join a lively debate on what we might call the 80/60 issue. Personally, I regret the way in which this issue has been allowed to become totemic in relation to the Bill, because in my view the most important target, and the political prize at the moment, is the 2020 target—the interim target.
If we are serious about meeting the 2° C threshold, my understanding of the science tells me that it is critical that we stabilise concentrations of greenhouse gases at around 450 parts per million. Given that we are at 380 ppm and rising at 2 ppm every year, it seems to me that we face an enormous challenge. The only way in which we can achieve that target is through some form of peak and decline framework. On the science that I have seen, we need global emissions to peak in a framework of around 15 to 20 years. Given that we are on a trajectory to fail in that task, the political energy of this Committee should be focused on the 2020 target and the credibility of the policy framework that underpins it. The 2050 target is, of course, important, because it sets a direction of travel and trajectory for carbon budgets, which are the key innovation in this Bill.
The dividing lines of that debate, the importance of which I do not want to understate, are now clear, and amendment No. 2 is supported by two esteemed members of the Environmental Audit Committee, who are clearly extremely sincere in their view. The Liberal Democrats, who carry conviction on this subject, also support the amendment, and I believe that they also see some political advantage in their position. The Conservative party position is that a great deal of sympathy has been expressed for the principles behind the amendment, but, for reasons that have been very adequately expressed by my hon. Friends, we would prefer to see leadership on this issue from the independent Climate Change Committee, and we have placed on record our commitment to uphold the recommendation of any such committee. The Government’s position is broadly in line with that, with one very big caveat: the Minister has placed on record that a Labour Government will not feel under any obligation to follow the recommendation of the independent Climate Change Committee—that was when the Minister’s said no on Second Reading. Those are the key dividing lines in the debate.
For the record, I am an “at least 80 per cent.” man. I placed that view on the record in December 2006 in a paper that I co-authored for the quality of life policy group, which was so ably chaired by my right hon. Friend the Member for Suffolk, Coastal. That report was called “Don’t give up on 2° C”, and it made it clear that we should be thinking about at least 80 per cent. That was the view that guided the work of the quality of life policy group. All the evidence that I have heard in the Environmental Audit Committee and in the Joint Committee that scrutinised this draft Bill has served to reinforce that view.