Clause 11
Statistics and Registration Service Bill
11:15 am
Vincent Cable (Shadow Chancellor, Treasury; Twickenham, Liberal Democrat)
I wish to speak in support of the amendment. Other amendments in the group relate to the issue—including those that stand in my name and that of my hon. Friend the Member for Falmouth and Camborne—particularly amendment No. 82, which would specify a time period for pre-release, in line with what we believe to be good international practice. Amendments Nos. 43 and 86 give effect to the proposal that we should clearly specify a non-political process for the determination of pre-release.
I wish to focus on the time period and on why it is seriously bad practice for the UK to have long periods of pre-release. There are several reasons for that, the first of which is that the longer the period of pre-release, the greater the opportunity for political mischief, through spinning and interpreting the data. I mean “political” in the broadest sense—I am not talking just about Ministers, but about advisers and press officers. That could also include civil servants, who might not act in a political capacity but who might feel that a set of statistics puts their Department in a particularly bad or good light, and will want to emphasise certain elements, given the opportunity to do so. We have seen many examples of that happening with social statistics.
Secondly, even if the practice that I have described was exaggerated—it is possible that we exaggerate what goes on—there is none the less the issue of public perception. We discussed at considerable length on Second Reading the figures showing poor public perception of Government statistics. The pre-release process has helped to forge those negative political perceptions.
A third reason is that the longer the figures are out there, the greater the likelihood that they will be leaked inadvertently, with damaging consequences. There have been some examples of that; for instance, in 2003 somebody leaked the retail sales statistics. They are a key market-moving indicator, but they got out in a way that they should not have.
The Government’s argument is that there is a case for pre-release, which we concede in the amendment. We do not take the extreme fundamentalist view that there should not be pre-release, although some countries do take that hard line. I understand that the Nordic countries have no pre-release at all. Norway, Finland and Denmark have no pre-release, and neither does Austria. However, we concede the principle thatthere is a justification for pre-release under certain circumstances, which are quite clear. There are some important economic statistics that move markets, whether it be the bond market or foreign exchange markets. The shift in numbers might be such that action by Government is required to deal with it. If the Government have not been given at least some opportunity to take action, market movement will be considerably influenced by the release. There is therefore a need for a certain time period, in order to prepare action. Many developed countries accept that principle, which is also accepted in the amendment.
However, it is worth reviewing what most other developed countries actually do, which is quite different and much less permissive than what occurs in our country. I shall just go through some of the key examples. Australia, for example, has a three-hour period, which is a little more generous than this amendment allows for, but of the same order of magnitude; I think that the Select Committee suggested a figure of three hours. Crucially, that three-hour pre-release provision applies to only a handful of key economic statistics—it does not apply at all to social data. France has a period of only one hour, which is again restricted to key economic data, unemployment, trade and inflation figures. Ireland gives a period of one hour for the most important economic statistics and two hours for national accounts, with no pre-release for anything else.
One would have thought that the United States was at the frontier of good practice because its statistics affect the world, not just the US. As I understand American practice, the President has pre-release access of only 30 minutes for key economic statistics. We have not got around to this topic at all in the Bill, but the Americans hve not only release and pre-release rules, but post-release rules. Civil servants are not allowed to comment on the data for at least an hour after they have been released. The American practice is very severe, disciplined and restrictive in terms of both the amount of pre-releases allowed and the statistics that are pre-released. If we are to adopt good international practice, we should be aspiring to something much closer to the American model.
Finally, by way of contrast, I cite Canada because its position is much closer to what the Government aspire to. The Canadians allow 15 hours for Ministers and18 hours for civil servants. Essentially, they pre-release data at the end of the afternoon, the day before they are due to be published. Ministers and civil servants get a night to reflect on the data and react to it, but crucially again, that is allowed for only a handful of key economic statistics, and does not apply to social data.
We can have an abstract argument about the pros and cons of pre-releasing data, but the question the Government have to answer is why British practice, even as modified under the Bill, is so far out of line with that in the rest of the developed world, and in a way that perpetuates either bad practice or the public perception of it. This is a key clause in the Bill and I hope that the Minister is listening to the criticisms that are coming from those on the Opposition Benches and the profession, and I hope that he will respond sympathetically to the amendments.