Clause 8 — Welsh rates of income tax

Wales Bill (Programme) (No.3) – in the House of Commons at 3:21 pm on 10 December 2014.

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Photo of Dawn Primarolo Dawn Primarolo Deputy Speaker (Second Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means)

With this we may take Lords amendments 2 to 13 and 17.

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

Taken together, these amendments remove the so-called lockstep mechanism from the income tax provisions. By removing that mechanism so that the Bill reflects the Silk commission’s recommendation in its part I report, the National Assembly for Wales will be able to set separate Welsh rates of income tax for each band. Subject to a referendum, all three income tax rates would be reduced by 10p, and the Assembly would decide a separate Welsh rate for each band. Those Welsh rates would be added to the reduced UK rates.

The lockstep is probably second only to dual candidacy as the most debated aspect of the Bill; it has been debated at great length in both this House and the other place. I have been clear throughout the passage of the Bill that I have been prepared to listen to all the arguments and perspectives and, if necessary, to take a different approach on the lockstep. That is exactly what I have done. Before I go any further, I would like again to place on the record my thanks to my right hon. Friend Mr Jones for his hard work and perseverance as Secretary of State for Wales in guiding the Bill through its early stages.

On Second Reading, Chris Bryant made a point of counting the number of times my right hon. Friend used the word “accountability” in describing the Bill; I believe that he stopped at 15. Frankly, though, my right hon. Friend could have used it 15 times more because the Bill was, and is, all about accountability. By being made responsible for raising a proportion of the money that they spend, and allowing the people of Wales to judge them on how they spend it, the Assembly and the Welsh Government will become more accountable to the electorate.

In removing the lockstep, we are removing what was widely seen to be a deterrent to the Welsh Government’s accepting the devolution of income tax in Wales. Given the other financial provisions in the Bill and the full devolution of business rates, which, as my right hon. Friend the Chancellor confirmed last week, will be implemented as planned next April, the Assembly would become responsible for raising around a quarter of the money that it spends.

Hon. Members will be aware that last week the Office for Budget Responsibility published a forecast of devolved tax revenues for Wales alongside the autumn statement.

That showed that revenue from the 10p of income tax that would be devolved to Wales would net the Welsh Government almost £2 billion in 2014-15—about nine times as much as stamp duty land tax and landfill tax combined. The figures show, in black and white, that through the Bill we are providing the Assembly and the Welsh Government the tools to help grow the Welsh economy and take responsibility for raising a significant portion of the money that they spend. The removal of the lockstep makes it even easier for them to do that.

I welcome the First Minister’s statement in the Senedd last week in which he confirmed for the first time that he would accept income tax devolution. That is indeed progress. But—and there is always a “but”—once again he hid behind the self-imposed “barrier” of funding. I have always said that the powers in the Bill should be as far-reaching and flexible as possible, to provide the Welsh Government with the tools to grow the Welsh economy. Where we have committed to removing obstacles, however, the First Minister continues to erect them. He seems intent on denying the people of Wales their rightful say on whether income tax powers should be devolved, rejecting the opportunity to make the Welsh Government more accountable to those who elect them and refusing to accept responsibility for raising more of the money that they spend.

Photo of Sammy Wilson Sammy Wilson Shadow DUP Spokesperson (Treasury)

The Secretary of State has outlined the advantages of the devolution of those additional powers. Does he accept that giving more tax-raising powers, and hence reducing other income from central Government, exposes the Welsh Government to greater fluctuations in revenue and makes the long-term planning of services much more difficult?

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

Part of devolving any tax—income tax or any other fiscal power—is the creation of an incentive for the devolved Government. They get an extra tool and an incentive, which they never had before, to grow that portion of their own tax base.

Crucially, the devolution of income tax in Wales will be done in line with what the Holtham commission proposed for Scotland: the indexed deduction mechanism. That would effectively shield the Welsh Government from UK-wide economic shocks but give them the incentive of holding on to the extra Welsh revenue that they were able to generate. That works both ways: if Welsh income tax grows at a slower pace than that of the rest of the UK generally, there will be a loss, but that is exactly what provides the incentive for the Welsh Government to seek to grow the tax base. The issue is about economic development.

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

My reading of the Office for Budget Responsibility figures, published last week, was that the Welsh devolved tax take is projected to increase by half a billion pounds over the next Parliament. If the powers are not fully adopted by the Welsh Government, what would be the increase in the Welsh block during that period?

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

I cannot provide a specific analysis in line with the question, but I agree with the general thrust of the hon. Gentleman’s point. There are distinct advantages, not only for the Welsh Government, but for businesses in Wales, which want the Welsh economy to grow through the devolution of these taxes.

Photo of Jonathan Evans Jonathan Evans Conservative, Cardiff North

Let me be the first to congratulate my right hon. Friend on his recognition overnight as the Welsh politician of the year.

Does this debate not highlight one of the difficulties with devolution? People only really want half of it—they want the powers, but do not want the responsibilities. There is a statistic showing that a minority of people in Wales recognise that health policy is decided in Cardiff. Does that not illustrate the importance of giving responsibility as well as devolving the powers themselves?

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

My hon. Friend is exactly right and characteristically articulates his point better than anybody else in the House could. Devolution got stuck. The settlement meant that the Welsh Government were essentially a spending Department with no real responsibility for raising money—in fact, local authorities or parish councils probably had more ability to raise revenue than the Welsh Government. The Bill is all about letting Welsh devolution take the next step forward, which is about fiscal devolution, giving responsibility and enhancing accountability to create a more meaningful relationship between the Welsh Government and the people who elect Assembly Members and Welsh Ministers.

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

The Secretary of State speaks of the incentives that these powers would give to the Welsh Government. Will he be clear, as his predecessor was, as to how they ought to deploy those incentives? His predecessor thought that they should cut taxes in Wales to lower rates than in England. Does he agree?

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales 3:30, 10 December 2014

It is entirely up to Welsh Ministers how they choose to use these tools. I am surprised by what the hon. Gentleman says, as I would expect him to be the last person to suggest that the Secretary of State should be directing how these powers are used. I am a Conservative, and, to my core, my aspiration is always to see lower taxes rather than higher taxes. That is a difference in values between Government and Opposition Members. We understand that lower taxes generally create the right circumstances for business growth and for growing wealth in an economy—and all Members, on both sides of the House, should be ambitious to see more of that in Wales.

Photo of Sammy Wilson Sammy Wilson Shadow DUP Spokesperson (Treasury)

Does the Secretary of State accept, though, that unless we have the correct formula for deciding what are national impacts and what are local impacts on the tax revenue raised, there is a great danger that Wales could suffer as a result of the fact that fluctuations in income over the economic cycle tend to be much greater in the regions of the United Kingdom than in the United Kingdom as a whole?

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

I do not dismiss the risk that the hon. Gentleman has outlined, but I think he exaggerates its impact on Wales. Alongside any perception of risk in relation to such fluctuations, there is a powerful opportunity for Wales to take greater control over wealth creation inside the nation of Wales. That is an exciting opportunity for the Welsh people, and it represents the next stage of devolution.

This is all about accountability. The former US President Harry Truman famously had on his desk a card that said, “The buck stops here.” I want to see a Welsh Government who stand up proudly and say, “The buck stops here” rather than “The buck is passed there.” That is what this Bill is all about: it creates that enhanced accountability and enhanced responsibility. I repeat my challenge to the First Minister and the Welsh Government: as soon as this Bill receives Royal Assent, take steps to call the referendum and do it as soon as possible. Let us seize the new tools and powers in this Bill with both hands and move forward.

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

May I be the second Member of this House to congratulate the Secretary of State on becoming Welsh politician of the year? I think the whole House would agree that anybody who can move from describing devolution as “constitutional vandalism” to being its most ardent supporter on the Government Benches deserves to have his political footwork duly recognised.

These amendments to the Wales Bill best exemplify the damascene conversion that the Secretary of State and his party have undergone on the devolution cause, because they relate to the devolution of income tax varying powers. Just as the Secretary of State used to denounce devolution and has now changed his mind, the Government have performed—he understated the extent of this—a handbrake U-turn on the lockstep.

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

For clarification, the shadow Secretary of State has accurately reported a quote of mine that appeared in an article in 2007, but he should do full justice to the article by adding that in it I set out exactly the same case for fiscal devolution that I have set out today. I have been entirely consistent over a long period as to how fiscal devolution would enhance the devolution settlement for Wales.

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

I am happy to agree that that is how the article went on, but it did indeed describe devolution as “constitutional vandalism”. I shall not forget that, and nor should the country of Wales, for which the right hon. Gentleman is now Secretary of State.

The Government have undertaken a U-turn on this. Let me refresh the House’s memory. Just a few months ago, the Secretary of State’s party wholly opposed the removal of the lockstep. In fact, his Department and the Treasury produced a substantive Command Paper, Cmd 14, which said:

“The Government is firm in its view that the income tax structure is a key mechanism to redistribute wealth across the whole of the UK, which is why the ‘progressivity’— a word I think they made up—

“of this system is properly determined at the UK level.

The inclusion of the lock-step is also consistent with the principle that fiscal devolution should not benefit one part of the UK to the detriment of another—this could occur if the Welsh Government is able to set a substantially lower rate for higher/additional taxpayers without needing to change the basic rate”.

That is what the Secretary of State seems to be suggesting —that we set lower rates in Wales than in England.

We do not demur from the sentiment expressed in the Command Paper, but nor do we greatly object to the Government changing their mind on this issue. That is partly because they are reflecting the views of all parties in the National Assembly—it is appropriate and good that the Secretary of State has listened to them on this —and partly in the light of the Smith commission findings, which have shifted the debate significantly by proposing 100% devolution of income tax to Scotland. In fact, it could be argued that there is now a case for going further than is proposed in the Bill. It seems unlikely to me that the people of Wales would find it acceptable to be asked in a referendum about having lesser tax varying powers than those on offer in Scotland.

Many of us in the House now recognise that perhaps one of the mistakes of the previous Government was to allow asymmetry to develop between different parts of the UK in earlier rounds of devolution. That has driven pressure for greater change in Wales to reflect changes in other parts of the country. In fact, the case has now clearly been made for a constitutional convention to consider all the issues in the round and to try to derive a lasting settlement acceptable to all parts of the UK.

The Government have not yet agreed to a constitutional convention, and in its absence we must still consider the Welsh Government’s rationale for taking up powers to raise taxes, if those powers were accepted at a referendum.

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

Labour’s policy is to have a constitutional convention. Is the hon. Gentleman saying that, in the event that we have a Labour UK Government, there will be a constitutional convention, and if so, would it halt the Smith process and the proposed Bill for Scotland?

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

No. I am saying that if there were a Labour Government, we would have a constitutional convention to look at the whole of the UK. Therefore, wherever we were in the Smith commission proposals, which will continue on their course, that would need to be fed into the convention. A constitutional convention would not need to slow down or stop further devolution to Scotland, but it would have to take cognisance of what was happening in Scotland.

Whatever further changes are made in Wales should reflect what happens in Scotland, because the willingness to accept asymmetry has diminished in Wales and elsewhere. Many of us feel that such asymmetry inherently leads, over time, to instability in the existing settlement.

In the absence of a convention, we must consider why the Government think that Wales should take up the new powers. I want to start not with Labour, but with the current Government. Why do they now feel that the Labour Welsh Government should have an unfettered ability to raise taxes or to lower them to levels below those in England? The Secretary of State has made a couple of soundbites or comments today to illustrate why he thinks we should do so—he talked repeatedly about accountability and responsibility—but I must say that none of them was quite as blunt and honest as the rationale he gave to the Institute of Welsh Affairs a few weeks ago. He said clearly that his objective in providing the tax varying powers was to

“end the politics of the begging bowl in Wales”—

[Interruption.] The Secretary of State says, “Absolutely,” but I find that quite an offensive position for him to take. He should not describe Wales as, in effect, a supplicant, and nor should he suggest that we are a scrounger or a shirker asking for handouts. It is not for him to suggest that the cure for the

“politics of the begging bowl”, as he injudiciously puts it, is to force the Welsh people to raise taxes within their own borders. I do not espouse such a dog-eat-dog, race-to-the-bottom version of Britain, and nor should he.

Photo of Alun Cairns Alun Cairns The Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury, The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Wales

The phrase “begging bowl”, as used in this context, originated with former First Minister Rhodri Morgan. Does the shadow Secretary of State completely dissociate himself from that?

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

It was deployed in an entirely different context. The implication of the Secretary of State’s pejorative use of the phrase was—I am paraphrasing, but this was broadly what he said in the rest of his speech —that the Welsh Government have not been responsible or accountable, but that they would become so for the first time if tax powers were afforded to them. I have never accepted that the Welsh Government are unaccountable —they are as accountable as any elected Government—and I certainly do not subscribe to the view that Wales has ever held out a begging bowl.

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

I think that the shadow Secretary of State is getting slightly bogged down and has now resorted to what he calls “paraphrasing” the speech I made to the IWA, although he is actually misrepresenting it entirely. My strong and clear point is that we have had 15 years of devolution in which the dominant theme of Welsh politics has been discussing how much money handed down through the block grant can be spent in Wales. The Bill and the new shift in devolution are about changing the nature of the debate so that it is not just about how much money we have handed down from London, but about raising money within Wales, growing the economy in Wales and seeing Wales stand on its own two feet.

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

The Secretary of State makes my point for me because I do not for a minute subscribe to the notion that Wales has money handed down to it from Westminster. That money reflects the taxes paid by Welsh people, and more importantly, in a Union that is meant to be about our ability to share resources, pool risk and redistribute from wealthier to less wealthy parts, it reflects the morality and values of our country. Unfortunately, that morality and that set of values are being undermined by the Secretary of State’s description of the Union as one in which one part is a supplicant and another is handing down money.

Photo of Ian Lucas Ian Lucas Shadow Minister (Defence)

Does my hon. Friend agree that we need to be wary of the politics of the hospital pass in Wales? I am always suspicious of Tories bearing gifts, to mix my metaphors, and I do not trust the Conservative party to defend the interests of my constituents.

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

Nor do I and, more importantly, nor do the people of Wales—that is why they do not elect Tories in Wales. The very least we owe the Welsh people is that we consider extremely carefully the likely impact of these radical changes to such a cornerstone of the redistributive Union as taxation. They will have an impact on the potential prosperity and well-being of the Welsh people, which is why, although Labour will not oppose the Lords amendments, as we have not opposed the Bill at other stages, we will continue to be clear that we want far more explanation from the Government about how and why they think the powers in question might be deployed in Wales, and what the benefits will be for the Welsh people.

Photo of Sammy Wilson Sammy Wilson Shadow DUP Spokesperson (Treasury)

In light of the language about money given to the devolved Administrations being “handed down”, rather than the result of tax revenues, and, as the hon. Gentleman said, the redistributive nature of some fiscal policy, does he accept that the danger of the devolution of income tax is that it is an underhand attempt to ensure that less money goes to the devolved Administrations, who will then be forced to raise money through higher taxation in their own jurisdictions?

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

In a nutshell, the hon. Gentleman, who is expert in this matter, having been the Finance Minister for his own devolved Administration, explains why we are so concerned about the change. We are worried that the Tories are eager to legislate in haste to foist on the Welsh people the power to raise taxes in Wales.

Our concerns are not just obstacles that the First Minister has placed in the way of the change, as the Secretary of State suggested. They are reasoned questions about the nature of the powers that might be deployed and what their impact will be. We have been clear and consistent in saying that the Government need to meet three tests. It is not really for the Opposition to meet them, because we cannot. It is for the Government proposing the changes to meet them, but it is disappointing that they have not done so. The first test, as the First Minister made clear, is on the baseline for funding and the Barnett formula. That will need to be addressed before the changes can ever be accepted in Wales, because we will not recommend the devolution of income tax varying powers to Wales until we know that we will not be locking in a degree of underfunding. Secondly, we want to be clear that even if the Barnett question is resolved, Wales will be better off.

Photo of Mark Williams Mark Williams Liberal Democrat, Ceredigion

Although I share the Secretary of State’s impatience for the Assembly Government to be speedy in addressing the issue once the Bill is passed, does the shadow Secretary of State agree that the Government need to assess the funding shortfall? One way that could be done would be if the Government here and the Assembly Government again commissioned Gerald Holtham, for example, to assess the level of underfunding before we move forward, which I agree with the Secretary of State that we should.

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

That is not a bad idea. We have recently heard Government statements about the reduction in the Barnett gap, and one can imagine that there would be such a reduction because public spending in England has been curtailed so dramatically under this Government, although we do not know that for certain. It is beholden on the Treasury to provide evidence of the current gap, and it would be sensible for it to consider making the process independent, not least because I do not think that we would fully trust what it might produce on its own.

Photo of Jonathan Evans Jonathan Evans Conservative, Cardiff North 3:45, 10 December 2014

The hon. Gentleman should be a bit cautious in his dismissal of the Conservative party, given this week’s opinion polls. His argument is the complete antithesis of the position adopted by the Labour party in Scotland—late in the day, it must be said—which is to agree to the devolution of all tax raising powers to Scotland. Against that background, how is his argument in any way consistent with the position adopted north of the border?

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

To paraphrase the infamous, notorious entry in the Encyclopaedia Britannica, it is not a question of “For Wales, see England”, “For Scotland, see Wales”, or “For Wales, see Scotland”. We have different countries with different demographics, histories and relative tax takes, and on behalf of the Welsh people, we should sensibly take a position that reflects their best interest, rather than talking an ideological perspective across the board. On the prospects of the Tory party in Wales, I would be a little more hopeful that it might do well were it not for those such as the hon. Gentleman not fighting their seats at the next election. We can read into that what we will.

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

Indeed, but I do not suggest for a minute that there is any prospect of my right hon. Friend being replaced by a Tory. Not now, not tomorrow, not ever. [Interruption.] It will be a cold day in hell before Neath turns Tory, and ditto Pontypridd.

Let me return to my point about whether Wales will be better off with these tax powers. As Sammy Wilson said, we can look to last week’s autumn statement to demonstrate that Welsh tax receipts are now £2 billion less than what was planned by the Chancellor in 2010. That is our proportion of the £66 billion shortfall in tax receipts that is a result of our underperforming economy under this Conservative Government. Had these measures applied in 2010, they would have devolved to Wales about £1 billion of that shortfall. That decline makes a mockery of the notion that such powers make the Welsh Government more accountable, because a poor performance across the board by the UK economy would not have been down to the actions of the Welsh Government. That performance would have been wholly down to a Tory Government in Westminster, and there is little that a smaller economy and country such as Wales could have done to mitigate that effect.

The other thing that those numbers illustrate—again, the hon. Member for East Antrim effectively made this point—concerns the volatility of tax receipts across the UK. That volatility has led to a £66 billion shortfall, and traditionally there are greater fluctuations in peripheral and regional parts of the UK economy than at the centre, and especially in London and the south-east. It difficult to imagine how a country such as Wales with a small economy could manage the risk associated with that greater volatility. That shows some of the benefit of our being part of a wider Union, and it makes clear the dangers and risks associated with disaggregating that Union.

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

I watched with great interest the hon. Gentleman’s prophecy of doom on “Sunday Politics”. I have also read the OBR report and looked at all the tables on the Welsh devolved figures, and they do not reflect his claims about a £1 billion loss. Indeed, the only table on this issue in the report suggests that the Welsh devolved tax base will increase over the next five years by £500 million. The shortfall that he mentions might be as a result of the raising of income tax personal allowances that has been announced by the UK Government, but the Silk commission made it clear that the indexed deduction method for the partial tax raising arrangement in the Bill means that that would not come into effect. Is not the hon. Gentleman guilty of scaremongering? Project fear is alive and well in Wales once again.

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

No, it is project reasoned analysis of the numbers, and that project shows clearly a £66 billion shortfall over the past five years and a projected further shortfall across the UK over the next five years. We will see a worse performance in terms of corporate and income tax receipts across the UK as a result of the low- wage, deeply insecure, second-rate economy that the Tory Government are building. Wales has been particularly ill served by what has happened because of the additional fragilities of our economy due to our industrial heritage and the preponderance of low-wage jobs in Wales.

The reality is that—[Interruption.] The Secretary of State shakes his head, but he should think about this. He said earlier that the indexed method cited in Holtham means that Wales would effectively be incentivised to grow its tax base at a faster rate than England’s to enjoy uplifts under these powers. The truth is that over the past five years the Welsh tax base has declined at a faster rate than that of England, as the figure is 4.8% in Wales whereas the UK average is 4.2%. That means that Wales would have been worse off under the indexation had the provisions applied in the last five years, which is a further illustration of the need for the Government to undertake some proper, detailed analysis to let the Welsh people know whether we would be better or worse off.

Photo of Ian Lucas Ian Lucas Shadow Minister (Defence)

In support of that point, is my hon. Friend aware that in Wrexham median wages fell by 7.4% in the last year under this Government? What encouragement that does give for increasing the tax base?

Photo of Owen Smith Owen Smith Shadow Secretary of State for Wales

My hon. Friend reinforces my point. We know that the Welsh economy has historic weaknesses because of the decline in heavy industry, and its distance from London and the powerhouse of the south-east. Those are well understood, but they are not reflected in the debate that we are having, which is largely politically motivated.

Some in Wales argue that we do not need a referendum to decide this matter, but we think that the Welsh people should have a debate and ultimately take the decision on what would be a radical change. The debate cannot be driven by the Tory party’s desire to insulate itself against the charge that it has reduced Welsh budgets by 10%, which it has; or by the need to support the Tory objective of reducing public spending to levels we have not seen since the 1930s, as was manifest last week; or even by the wish to sustain a partisan argument of English votes for English laws. All three of those rationales feature as part of the Government’s motivation for this debate, and we are disappointed that they have not provided any real response to these questions throughout the passage of the Bill.

It will now be for the Welsh Labour Government to consider what is best for the Welsh people. I have no doubt that they will do so using Welsh Labour values and thinking about the benefits for the Welsh people, as well as about how we deliver equality and improvements to the lot of working people across the UK.

Photo of Glyn Davies Glyn Davies Conservative, Montgomeryshire

I am grateful for the opportunity to speak on the occasion of the Bill’s return from the House of Lords in much improved form, if I may say so. In general, I welcome the Bill although I am concerned about some elements. Perhaps it is a Welsh trait that we can never completely agree on things, and I want to touch on one issue where I am not in agreement.

What I welcome in particular is the new reality of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition shaping the process and future of devolution and driving forward, leaving—if I may say so to the shadow Secretary of State—Labour languishing in its wake. He may describe that as a U-turn, but that is the reality today. I want to make just one important point, which is very much a personal view. I disagree with one specific aspect of the Bill, but I would like to emphasise my overall support: it is a very good and welcome Bill.

I would like to put my point in context by painting some background to my personal journey in the devolution debate. I was not in favour of the form of devolution on offer in the referendum on 18 September 1997. It seemed to me to be creating a permanently unstable constitutional settlement. A settlement is the last thing it was. I attended the count in Llandrindod Wells leisure centre, watching the TV coverage as the decision of the voters of Wales came through and they decided in favour of establishing a national assembly for Wales. I drove home knowing that there was no going back. The people had spoken, albeit by a tiny margin of 0.6%. We were now facing an entirely new question: how would devolution work in practice? I concluded immediately that the new Welsh Assembly would eventually become a law-making, tax-raising Parliament based in Wales. That has influenced my thinking on the issue ever since. I did not want to be dragged, kicking and screaming, and trying to refight the 1997 devolution referendum. I preferred to get ahead of the curve and identify where we were going to get to, and move towards that in a positive and smooth way. That was not a change of mind, but a recognition of a new reality.

Photo of Jonathan Evans Jonathan Evans Conservative, Cardiff North

My hon. Friend, through his service in the Assembly, has been one of the individuals who has encapsulated the position adopted by the Conservative party. Although the party battled against establishing the Assembly in the first place, and although the margin was only 4,000 in a million, nobody could claim other than that my hon. Friend and the party in Wales have since not been dragged back to the previous debate, but have moved forward and sought to make a success of the devolution settlement.

Photo of Glyn Davies Glyn Davies Conservative, Montgomeryshire

Nowhere has that been more obvious than in the contribution from those on the Front Bench when we started today’s debate.

The Government of Wales Act 2006, introduced by the Labour party, moved things forward quite a lot, as did the 2011 referendum in relation to tax-raising powers. The Wales Bill takes us further down the road to what I consider to be the inevitable conclusion, but not far enough for me on tax levying responsibility. I will be blunt about my view: it is a mistake that the Bill requires a referendum before devolving responsibility for levying part of income tax collection to the Welsh Government. That is properly an issue for a general election. The Welsh Government are not financially accountable to the people of Wales until they are responsible for levying a degree of income tax. It is also my personal view that financial accountability through responsibility for income tax is so fundamental to a proper, grown-up National Assembly for Wales and Welsh Government that we should not devolve extra responsibility until this principle is accepted—no financial accountability, no new powers.

The First Minister, and perhaps Labour Members here on the Opposition Benches, do not want financial accountability. How convenient it is to bask in the credit of every spend that the people of Wales approve of and blame the UK Government for every difficult decision needed to bring order to the United Kingdom’s finances. We see the First Minister in Wales scrabbling around for any reason he can come up with to avoid committing to a referendum. First, it was lockstep, which is removed by the Bill. Then it was the Barnett deficit, until it became clear that it is a rather smaller Barnett deficit than we thought. I hear now that air passenger duty might be another reason, and if that is resolved, there will be another one. The reality is that Welsh Labour in Cardiff is desperate to avoid financial accountability. It does not want to be properly financially accountable to the Welsh people.

Photo of Elfyn Llwyd Elfyn Llwyd Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Plaid Cymru Westminster Leader, Shadow PC Spokesperson (Constitution), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Foreign Affairs), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Home Affairs), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Justice), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Defence), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) 4:00, 10 December 2014

I am following the hon. Gentleman’s argument and thinking about what the Labour spokesman said. When the Silk proposals were being discussed, the First Minister of Wales was adamant he did not want air passenger duty devolved, but suddenly he has woken up and is desperately keen on it. It depends what day of the week we are in.

Photo of Glyn Davies Glyn Davies Conservative, Montgomeryshire

I would be more encouraged if I thought the day of the week was the reason. I think it is a desperate attempt to find one more hurdle to prevent us from moving towards financial accountability.

During the passage of the Bill, I accepted it would include a commitment to a referendum on devolution of income tax levying powers. It was a recommendation of the all-party Silk commission, and in 1997 there was a referendum on this issue in Scotland. In my view, however, the Silk commission was wrong, and weak in its recommendation on this point. Devolving income tax powers is not as big a change as is being made out, and it is entirely appropriate that it be decided at a general election; it does not need a referendum. If a Welsh Labour Government acted irresponsibility, which they might well do, they would quickly be turfed out of office. It is much easier to sit in blissful impotence, complaining.

I would like to see manifesto commitments by my party, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru to revisit this issue, perhaps in a Wales Bill early next Parliament and before the Assembly elections in 2016, and to devolve income tax. We should put an end to Labour’s easy ride in Wales and make the Welsh Government properly fiscally accountable to the Welsh people. Only then will devolution grow up and reach its inevitable, logical conclusion.

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

It is a pleasure to make a short contribution to this debate, primarily to welcome these Lords amendments, which mirror amendments that were tabled by Plaid Cymru when the Bill passed through the Commons and which conveniently the three Westminster parties voted against at the time—they say a week is a long time in politics, but we are only a few months down the line and there has been a complete change of position. In that regard, I congratulate the new Secretary of State on being far more progressive than his predecessor.

Photo of Mark Williams Mark Williams Liberal Democrat, Ceredigion

The hon. Gentleman will remember that there were exceptions. I was pleased to support Plaid Cymru’s lockstep amendment. I would not profess to be Mystic Meg or a trailblazer, but people listened to the message put forward by him and others, and to their credit, the Government changed.

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

I stand corrected. To be fair to the hon. Gentleman, he has voted with us several times and broken his party Whip.

The lockstep, of course, was a handcuff measure that would have made the powers in the Bill unusable—the only plus side was the extra borrowing capacity it would have given to the Welsh Government—and removing it creates greater flexibility, which is obviously to be welcomed. When we were debating the Bill in the Commons, however, I warned the Government that events in Scotland would supersede it, and that has indeed been the case. The Union survived by a thread, and even then only following the famous vow promising home rule, devolution max or something as close to federalism as possible. In that regard, the Smith commission was extremely disappointing.

Westminster has one chance left to save the Union, or the British state as it is currently constituted, but the Smith commission is playing into the hands of pro-independence campaigners in Scotland. It nowhere near delivers the powers promised in the vow, but it is far in advance of what the UK Government are offering to Wales in the Bill. The signature policy of the Smith commission is 100% income tax devolution and the ability of the Scottish Executive to set as many bands as they want at whatever level they want. Indeed, my party put forward such an amendment during proceedings on the Wales Bill in the spring.

Photo of Ian Lucas Ian Lucas Shadow Minister (Defence)

If the Smith commission is not in accordance with the vow that was given, why did the Scottish National party agree to it?

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

The commission’s remit is not one of its own choosing, but the SNP decided to act in the best interests of the country and move the process forward. Making out that the Smith commission proposals are what were included in the vow is not right. It was essentially home rule or devolution max, and on any definition of devo max, it means the full devolution of all powers apart from defence, foreign affairs, the monarchy and military policy. That is not included in the Smith commission proposals, which were less significant than what was promised to the people of Scotland on the eve of the referendum.

As I was saying, the Smith commission is vastly more progressive in its trajectory of travel, offering 100% of income tax in comparison with the Wales Bill offer of only a paltry income tax sharing arrangement—and even then, only following a referendum many years down the line.

Photo of Geraint Davies Geraint Davies Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Substitute Member)

Does the hon. Gentleman accept that if Wales has its own powers to set both a higher and a lower rate of tax and it chooses to reduce the higher rate so that a lot of millionaires move to Monmouthshire, the overall tax take to the United Kingdom would be dramatically reduced because those people would all evade tax by moving to Wales? Does he think that is a good thing to set in motion, and does he have any idea whether the Government have calculated the cost of that possibility?

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

I am interested in this line of tax harmony across the UK being put forward by the Labour party. In Wales, of course, we had at the last count 22 local authorities all setting different rates of council tax, and we are a key part of a single market across the European Union with its different members setting different tax rates. If Labour Members’ argument were to hold water, surely they would argue for tax harmonisation across the whole of local government in Wales and across all member states of the European Union. It does not make much sense to me.

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

I think I have answered the hon. Gentleman’s point.

In conclusion, the general election is fast approaching, and I can assure this House and the people of Wales that Plaid Cymru will fight that election on the basis that we will not allow our country to be treated as a second-class nation by the Westminster establishment.

Photo of Geraint Davies Geraint Davies Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Substitute Member)

I come here with an open mind about these tax issues, but I must confess that I have major concerns because I fear that the incentive for the Government to devolve tax powers is not one of freeing the nation of Wales to make its own decisions, but one of distracting attention from the fact that Wales is grossly underfunded both in revenue under the Barnett formula by some £300 million and in capital receipts. If we had our fair share of HS2, for instance, we would have an extra £2 billion.

K

And England is even more unfunded due to the Barnett Formula

Submitted by Kevin Wells

Photo of Geraint Davies Geraint Davies Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Substitute Member)

I can see that the hon. Gentleman is wearing black and white.

Photo of Dawn Primarolo Dawn Primarolo Deputy Speaker (Second Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means)

Order. I have no idea what is being talked about here. We are not discussing Swansea football club and we are not discussing suits or weddings. Jonathan Edwards is supposed to be making an intervention on the tax-raising powers in the Wales Bill. Perhaps he could face me, so I could hear him; and, secondly, he could make sure that his intervention is in order.

Photo of Jonathan Edwards Jonathan Edwards Shadow PC Spokesperson (Treasury), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Business, Innovation and Skills), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Transport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Communities and Local Government), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Culture, Media and Sport), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales)

I am grateful to you, Madam Deputy Speaker, for saving me because my good friend was distracting me on the basis of some spurious points. Is it the position of the Labour party, should it form the next UK Government, that HS2 will be seen as an England-only project and not a UK-wide project, thus giving Wales its rightful consequentials of £2 billion, which the hon. Gentleman mentioned?

Photo of Dawn Primarolo Dawn Primarolo Deputy Speaker (Second Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means)

Order. The hon. Member for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr is now trying to tempt his friend—having claimed that his friend was tempting him—to go down a route that we are not discussing today. We are debating Lords amendments on the tax-raising powers in the Wales Bill. Geraint Davies now has the Floor.

Photo of Geraint Davies Geraint Davies Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Substitute Member)

Let me publicly assure Mrs Edwards that the wedding was not spurious. I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on both his point and his suit. It is a very nice suit, in black and white.

As I mentioned earlier, the differential rates pose a real problem. There is a presumption that Wales will not lower the higher rate, but a very small number of people in Wales earn more than £150,000 a year. They currently pay 45%, and will pay 50% under a new Labour Government. In theory, if a new Labour Government in Cardiff or Westminster—or any other Government, for that matter—reduced the top rate and a large number of people simply slipped across the border, they would be evading large amounts of tax. Obviously Wales would benefit, because more money would be coming in, but for the overall tax-paying community, the amount would go down, and that is of legitimate concern.

I should like to hear from Ministers what evaluation the Office for Budget Responsibility has made, producing different forecasts with different scenarios. My guess is that it has made none, and that this legislation is being rushed through in the hurried aftermath of what happened in Scotland, so that Wales can be given something comparable to the quick settlement that was made following electoral concerns in Scotland as we move towards a general election. That is not the way in which to establish a new constitutional settlement and a settled financial regime. It is all very well Jonathan Edwards saying “You want harmony, we have difference, so it does not matter what happens.” Such changes and differences bring pressures that are not settled, and which will be replicated in the future.

Air passenger duty has been mentioned. Other things being equal, if someone says “Can I set my own air passenger duty?”, the response might be “That’s brilliant: we can raise some money”. But what if Boris Johnson in London says “Hold on, there is a precedent here,

I want the money for Heathrow, and I am going to lower air passenger duty”, which is what he has said about stamp duty? We are talking about major shifts in the financial powers across the Union, which will unsettle the Union itself. Obviously we want a devolved settlement that is stable rather than ever-changing, rather than the setting in motion—by means of a quickstep to avoid short-term political advantage—of a system that will unravel into chaos.

I know that there seems to be consensus across the Floor of the House today. It is a case of “Don’t worry; we will have a referendum, and hopefully it will be all right on the night.” What I have just described will probably not happen in Wales, because what prospect is there of our suddenly having five UKIP Assembly Members and a regional list? Oh, there is such a prospect; well there we are. What prospect is there of a newly emerging rainbow alliance—perhaps a very unfortunate rainbow with not a crock of gold but a crock of something much more unpleasant at the bottom of it, which will generate a cynical, unfair tax proposition that will lead us back into the dark ages? That is possible. [Interruption.] Obviously there is agreement, as laughter leads the room.

Photo of Sammy Wilson Sammy Wilson Shadow DUP Spokesperson (Treasury)

I am glad to learn that the hon. Gentleman has now joined the Unionists in his heart, but does he accept that once we start to disaggregate the fiscal arrangements for the United Kingdom, real constitutional issues become involved? The danger is that the more fiscal powers are devolved to regional administrations, the looser the Union will become. [Interruption.]

Photo of Dawn Primarolo Dawn Primarolo Deputy Speaker (Second Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means)

Order. This is ridiculous. The debate is degenerating into some sort of Christmas party. Members are just shouting at each other. This is a proper debate on Lords amendments. Members who have been in the House for a long time know that heckling, or comments from a sedentary position, are not acceptable. Mr Davies, I should be really grateful if you would now focus on the points in the Bill, so that we can hear the rest of your comments, followed by the Secretary of State’s conclusion. I shall do my best to ensure that you are not interrupted, or tempted to answer questions that are not asked formally in the Chamber.

Photo of Geraint Davies Geraint Davies Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Substitute Member) 4:15, 10 December 2014

Thank you for that clarification, Madam Deputy Speaker.

The focus of this debate is the differential between the lower and the higher rates—how that moves up and down and squeezes in and out, and what the implications of it are. In terms of the last intervention, the implications are that if that gives rise to great differences between the two rates across the border—or, indeed, across the Scottish or Northern Ireland border—it will generate distortions, not just on the border itself, but in terms of investment decisions, where people choose to live and work, and social security arrangements—whether they are devolved or not. It will extend beyond personal taxation because corporations coming in will bear in mind what they think their workers are going to be paying. As has been mentioned, therefore, corporation tax is part of that broader conversation.

The Government are looking to give corporation tax flexibility for Northern Ireland because Ireland has got it. We could then follow through and say that perhaps Scotland should have it or perhaps somewhere else, and we would end up again with a bidding war downwards where—as I have just mentioned for income tax—the overall corporation tax-take for the UK would go down. At a time when corporations are migrating based on research and development and access to Europe as opposed to corporation tax rates, maybe this is the wrong route to follow, when taken together with income tax.

Photo of Geraint Davies Geraint Davies Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Substitute Member)

That is an interesting point, but it does intrinsically depend on the elasticity of demand. At a time when corporation tax is already the lowest in the G8, I suggest that inward investors are not looking to Britain to lower its corporation tax and making a marginal decision to invest. They are looking at the level of research and development and the prospects of being part of Europe. One issue for inward investors is the uncertainty of a referendum ending up with us as a sort of chip shop England floating out into obscurity with UKIP and the Tories.

In my view, if we cut corporation tax again there will be a net reduction in corporation tax revenues. On the income tax issue, I have an open mind. I am just throwing forward some of the scenarios whereby we can lose out in England and in Wales and making a point, which I ask the Minister to respond to in his summing up. I want to know what analysis has been done of the potential downside to the Exchequer of Wales reducing the top rate of tax and people migrating to Monmouth? What are those numbers and what consideration has he made? My guess is that he has made no consideration, and if so we should not be hurtling ahead in this way.

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

I will be very brief as there is another set of Lords amendments that we need to debate.

We spent most of this debate not debating the specifics of the Lords amendments around the removal of the lockstep. Most of the time has been spent listening to the weight of arguments, largely from Labour Members, against fiscal devolution full-stop. So we end the parliamentary passage of the Wales Bill exactly where we started: with three parties in this Chamber recognising the potential benefits to Wales of devolving a portion of fiscal powers—we are not talking about a full step down the road of full fiscal devolution, but a strong step forward —and one party resolutely digging in, trying to pretend that there is some kind of plot or conspiracy; we have had all those words and that language used before.

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

I will give way to the right hon. Gentleman, who was rightly recognised last year as the MP of the year.

Photo of Elfyn Llwyd Elfyn Llwyd Shadow PC Spokesperson (Wales), Plaid Cymru Westminster Leader, Shadow PC Spokesperson (Constitution), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Foreign Affairs), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Home Affairs), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Justice), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Defence), Shadow PC Spokesperson (Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)

And I am intervening on a Member of even higher status.

Is it not interesting that the excuse being put forward by those on the Labour Front Bench is that they need to sort out Barnett? For the last 20 years or so I have been arguing about the need to sort out Barnett when the Labour party denied that there was a problem.

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

The right hon. Gentleman is absolutely right. We end the parliamentary passage of the Bill exactly as we began it, with Labour trying to place even more hurdles in the way of devolving a portion of income tax. You would have to be Colin Jackson to clear all the hurdles that the Opposition are trying to set up.

Photo of Stephen Crabb Stephen Crabb The Secretary of State for Wales

I will not, because there is another group of Lords amendments to discuss.

I should like to finish by paying particular tribute to the contribution made by my hon. Friend Glyn Davies. He set out some powerful arguments, and has done so from a position of real credibility, having been an Assembly Member. He has been ahead of the curve on many occasions in recognising the strategic direction that Welsh devolution needs to go in and the benefits that can be accrued to Wales by taking sensible, moderate and pragmatic steps forward. On that note, I shall bring my remarks to a close.

Lords amendment 1 agreed to, with Commons financial privilege waived.

Lords amendments 2 to 13 and 17 agreed to, with Commons financial privilege waived.