Stephen Crabb (Whip, Whips; Preseli Pembrokeshire, Conservative)

What is his most recent assessment of the level of growth in the UK economy compared with those of other OECD economies; and if he will make a statement.

Michael Fabricant (Whip, Whips; Lichfield, Conservative)

What is his most recent assessment of the level of growth in the UK economy compared with those of other OECD economies; and if he will make a statement.

Alistair Darling (Chancellor of the Exchequer, HM Treasury; Edinburgh South West, Labour)

I shall publish my latest assessment in the pre-Budget report.

Stephen Crabb (Whip, Whips; Preseli Pembrokeshire, Conservative)

Is it not the case that all the Prime Minister's and the Chancellor of the Exchequer's fantasy predictions about Britain leading the world out of recession have now been proved false? Can the Chancellor explain why the United Kingdom is still mired in the worst recession, while all the other major economies have returned to growth?

Alistair Darling (Chancellor of the Exchequer, HM Treasury; Edinburgh South West, Labour)

I said at the time of the Budget that I did not expect our economy to return to growth until about the turn of the year, and I remain of that view. As the hon. Gentleman may recall, I also said a couple of years ago that I believed the recession would be deeper and more profound than many observers were predicting.

It is good news for us that America, Germany and Japan are coming out of recession, because they are important markets for us. It was inevitable that the recession would affect countries in different ways and for different periods. The downturn in Germany and Japan at the beginning of this year, for example, was far greater than the downturn that we had experienced. However, the one obvious common feature applying to every country that has come out of recession is the introduction of a fiscal stimulus of one sort of another. The Conservative party is the only party in 186 countries that takes a different view.

Michael Fabricant (Whip, Whips; Lichfield, Conservative)

Given that the fiscal stimulus in the United Kingdom to which the Chancellor just referred was greater than the fiscal stimulus in any other country in terms of our borrowing as a percentage of GDP, and given that our currency has been devalued against the dollar, stimulating exports, was the Chancellor surprised to find that the United States had emerged from the recession before the United Kingdom, and was the Prime Minister even more surprised—

John Bercow (Speaker)

Order. I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman.

Alistair Darling (Chancellor of the Exchequer, HM Treasury; Edinburgh South West, Labour)

In terms of size—and size sometimes matters—I think the hon. Gentleman will find that the German Government's stimulus was slightly larger than ours, although my former opposite number, Mr. Clarke said that he was not very much in favour of it. The key point is that Germany, France, Italy, Japan, China and many other Asian countries, and the United States all do the same thing when faced with the most severe downturn in modern times: they put money into the economy to support people and businesses. That is why, throughout the world, the confidence that we now enjoy is far greater than it was six months ago.

Rob Marris (Wolverhampton South West, Labour)

May I urge my right hon. Friend to reject the shallow short-termism from the Opposition Benches? It looks as though the UK will have slower growth coming out of the recession, but also a shallower recession. Will my right hon. Friend say what has happened and what will happen in terms of the size of our economy as against those of comparable OECD countries between, for example, 2005 and 2015? Let us look at the medium term.

Alistair Darling (Chancellor of the Exchequer, HM Treasury; Edinburgh South West, Labour)

I am sure—and I certainly hope—that you would rebuke me, Mr. Speaker, if I were to try to read out a table giving all that information immediately, but my hon. Friend makes the general point that the measures we are taking are making a difference. The scrappage scheme, which is part of the stimulus and which has been opposed by the Conservatives, has meant that Nissan has taken on more workers in Sunderland and has reported an increase in its small car sales. Honda is also reporting an increase in its sales after having had a lay-off for the first six months of the year. I say to the Conservatives that the point at issue is that Government action can and does make a difference; that is the difference between the two of us. We must continue to support our economy until we have made sure that the recovery is established and we can then start the necessary consolidation. That is very important, and I am sorry about the Conservative party's approach. Of all the 186 members of the International Monetary Fund, there is not a single country that believes in and supports the stance the Conservatives have taken.

George Osborne (Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Treasury; Tatton, Conservative)

Given that all the other major economies are now growing, what exactly did the Prime Minister mean when he said:

"This Chancellor is leading...the world...out of recession"?—[ Hansard, 3 June 2009; Vol. 493, c. 268.]

Alistair Darling (Chancellor of the Exchequer, HM Treasury; Edinburgh South West, Labour)

I do not recall that he singled me out in that way, but what I would say to the hon. Gentleman—I have been saying this for some time now—is that the difference between the two of us is that when we were faced with a severe downturn I believed that the right thing to do was to use the spending power of Government to ensure we supported our economy. All the countries that have now come out of recession or are coming out of it have had that same thing in common. They have all been affected in different ways—sadly, America has had higher unemployment than us—but the Governments of all these countries decided that to do nothing and let the recession take its toll was unacceptable. Instead they have taken the necessary action, and it is bearing results.

George Osborne (Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Treasury; Tatton, Conservative)

I am sorry that the Chancellor does not remember the compliment the Prime Minister paid to him, but the Prime Minister said in June 2009—which was, in fact, also the month in which he was trying to sack his Chancellor—that the

"Chancellor is leading...the world...out of recession."

The problem is that the British Government do not have a simple answer to the simple question why this country is still in recession when the rest of the world is recovering. The Chancellor now says that he will hit his Budget forecast that by the end of the year the economy will be growing—and, of course, we hope he is right about that—but he knows that the Budget forecast included a prediction that the economy would shrink by 3.5 per cent. this year. Is he still confident that that growth prediction will be hit, because it would require an annualised growth of 24 per cent. in the final quarter of this year if he is to be accurate?

Alistair Darling (Chancellor of the Exchequer, HM Treasury; Edinburgh South West, Labour)

I believe I said at our last Question Time that, in common with other countries, the downturn in the first quarter of this year—and, indeed, also in the last quarter of 2008—was more severe than people had thought. I repeat the point, however, that the hon. Gentleman's answer would have been to do absolutely nothing. As my right hon. Friend the Financial Secretary said, until the hon. Gentleman tried to nuance the Conservatives' position in his press conference last Monday, he has said time and again that he would not have done anything—he would not have supported people, and nor would he have supported businesses, to get through this recession. Indeed, most informed commentators take the view that what we have done is right. It is a view that is accepted by the OECD, the IMF, the CBI and the Federation of Small Businesses. The Conservatives alone took the view that they would do absolutely nothing, and I believe that they did so on the entirely cynical calculation that if what we did did not work, they would say they were right, and if it did work, they would say the recovery would have happened anyway. They are wrong on this—they are fundamentally wrong on perhaps the most important issue of the day.